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Professional forecasters' expectations, consistency, and international spillovers

  • Abstract This paper focuses on the expectation formation process of professional forecasters by relying on survey data on forecasts regarding gross domestic product growth, consumer price index inflation and 3‐month interest rates for a broad set of countries. We examine the interrelation between macroeconomic forecasts and also the impact of uncertainty on forecasts by allowing for cross‐country interdependencies and time variation in the coefficients. We find that professional forecasts are often in line with the Taylor rule and identify significant expectation spillovers from monetary policy in the USA.

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Metadaten
Author: Joscha Beckmann, Robert L. Czudaj
URN:urn:nbn:de:gbv:9-opus-40913
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2675
ISSN:1099-131X
Parent Title (English):Journal of Forecasting
Publisher:Wiley
Place of publication:Hoboken, New Jersey
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of first Publication:2020/10/01
Release Date:2020/12/08
Tag:expectations; forecasts; survey data; uncertainty
GND Keyword:-
Volume:39
Issue:7
First Page:1001
Last Page:1024
Faculties:Rechts- und Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung