Tim Hensen, Daniel Fässler, Liam O’Mahony, Werner C. Albrich, Beatrice Barda, Christian Garzoni, Gian-Reto Kleger, Urs Pietsch, Noémie Suh, Johannes Hertel, Ines Thiele

• COVID-19, a systemic multi-organ disease resulting from infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is known to result in a wide array of disease outcomes, ranging from asymptomatic to fatal. Despite persistent progress, there is a continued need for more accurate determinants of disease outcomes, including post-acute symptoms after COVID-19. In this study, we characterised the serum metabolomic changes due to hospitalisation and COVID-19 disease progression by mapping the serum metabolomic trajectories of 71 newly hospitalised moderate and severe patients in their first week after hospitalisation. These 71 patients were spread out over three hospitals in Switzerland, enabling us to meta-analyse the metabolomic trajectories and filter consistently changing metabolites. Additionally, we investigated differential metabolite–metabolite trajectories between fatal, severe, and moderate disease outcomes to find prognostic markers of disease severity. We found drastic changes in serum metabolite concentrations for 448 out of the 901 metabolites. These results included markers of hospitalisation, such as environmental exposures, dietary changes, and altered drug administration, but also possible markers of physiological functioning, including carboxyethyl-GABA and fibrinopeptides, which might be prognostic for worsening lung injury. Possible markers of disease progression included altered urea cycle metabolites and metabolites of the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, indicating a SARS-CoV-2-induced reprogramming of the host metabolism. Glycerophosphorylcholine was identified as a potential marker of disease severity. Taken together, this study describes the metabolome-wide changes due to hospitalisation and COVID-19 disease progression. Moreover, we propose a wide range of novel potential biomarkers for monitoring COVID-19 disease course, both dependent and independent of the severity.