Margit Bussmann

• A large body of research investigates whether democracies’ decisions to intervene militarily are guided by external threats and strategic considerations or whether domestic factors play the predominant role. Foreign military intervention can create a “rally-round-the-flag” effect and might be used to divert attention away from domestic problems. A reassessment of diversionary theory for France, as one of the most militarily active European powers, which has hardly been subject to rigorous empirical research so far, is not supportive of the theory’s theses. There is only weak support that France is more likely to intervene in months with low presidential popularity and no evidence of a systematic rally effect after France gets involved in military disputes. With few exceptions, presidential approval ratings do not improve.