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Abstract
In the 21st century, most of the world’s glaciers are expected to retreat due to further global warming. The range of this predicted retreat varies widely as a result of uncertainties in climate and glacier models. To calibrate and validate glacier models, past records of glacier mass balance are necessary, which often only span several decades. Long-term reconstructions of glacier mass balance could increase the precision of glacier models by providing the required calibration data. Here we show the possibility of applying shrub growth increments as an on-site proxy for glacier summer mass balance, exemplified by Salix shrubs in Finse, Norway. We further discuss the challenges which this method needs to meet and address the high potential of shrub growth increments for reconstructing glacier summer mass balance in remote areas.
Abstract: The Arctic has experienced a pronounced increase in air temperature over the last four decades, with an average increase of 0.4 °C per decade and thus an increase of almost the double rate than that of temperate regions. Remote sensing studies and repeat photography of historical images have shown large-scale increases of plant productivity in tundra ecosystems over the same time period. A pronounced size, abundance and biomass increase of shrubs has been observed. This so called shrub expansion has important repercussions for the vegetation, the animals, the soil, the energy and the carbon balance of the Arctic tundra and on regional and global climate. As the comparison of historical photographs with recent photographs has shown, this shrub expansion occurs on different temporal and spatial scales with areas of strong increase in shrub cover (expanding patches) and areas without noticeable changes in shrub vegetation (stable patches). While remote sensing approaches for the detection of changes in vegetation are limited in their temporal coverage and so far also in their resolution, historical photographs with high resolution are often not available. Experimental studies have shown that an increase in nutrients or temperature often resulted in increased shrub biomass, but findings were partly contradictory, referred to short term observations and usually confined to small areas. To bridge the gap between spatially limited plot-scale experiments and global large-scale assessment of plant productivity by satellite derived pictures, dendrochronology was used in this thesis to analyze the drivers for and the rate of shrub growth of different widespread evergreen and deciduous shrub species in alpine and arctic tundra and to reconstruct historic environmental conditions. In detail, this doctoral thesis was conducted to study shrub growth and to assess the applicability of traditional dendrochronological methods on shrubs that had been so far mainly applied to trees and to test whether shrubs differed morphologically from trees. Further, I was determined to look for evidence for a possible Scandinavian shrub range expansion and to assess which climatic factors – temperature, precipitation or snow – influenced shrub growth significantly. Moreover, we aimed to find the reason for the observed heterogeneity of the shrub expansion on the landscape and its relevance for the three most common shrubs on the Alaskan tundra. The methods applied followed the routines usually applied for dendrochronological analyses of treerings, with the exception that usually several stem discs of the main stem were analyzed and frequently had to be prepared with help of a microtome as thin-sections, that were stained and sealed on a coverglass before annual shrubrings were measured. The averaged shrubring widths were then compared with environmental factors through correlation and regression methods. This thesis gives first a general introduction to climate change in the Arctic, shrub expansion on the tundra, the scientific discipline of dendrochronology or -ecology on shrubs and its development, the main research questions and the thesis outline. Then seven research papers are presented and the main results and conclusions are synthesized and discussed and finally possible venues of future research are outlined. The most important insights gained from this thesis are the following: I) Dendroecological methods can be applied to shrubs. Insights into shrub morphology have been gained by detecting an interesting mechanism for coping with adverse environmental conditions of both, trees and shrubs that can save resources by confining the production of wood to the upper parts of the stem. II) Further, I found evidence for a shrub expansion in Scandinavia. III) I could establish the causal link between the current climate warming and increased radial and vertical shrub growth by identifying summer temperature as main driver for shrub growth. IV) Results from the Alaskan tundra indicate a strongly adverse role of snow for shrub growth in stable patches, refuting the popular snow-shrub-microbe hypothesis for this extensive area across species. The differing influence of snow is likely linked to the presence of permafrost and shallow active layers and the snow’s contribution to moist or even anoxic conditions in Alaska. V) Furthermore, we found that the different rates and the spatial heterogeneity of shrub expansion are accompanied by strong differences in the surrounding vegetation composition and the soil parameters of expanding (accustomed to more favorable conditions) and stable shrub patches. VI) These differences are predisposed by shrub patch position within the landscape, comprising different levels and rates of disturbance. VII) Additionally, shrub ring records were successfully used as natural archives to model past temperature dynamics respectively summer glacier mass balance with high accuracy. VIII) Finally, a synthesis of the climate-growth relationships of shrubs of more than 25 sites around the Arctic as joined effort together with other leading shrub researchers supports the presence of a circumpolar shrub expansion, gives recommendations for methods used in shrub dendroecology and lays out future research directions. The findings of my dissertation research show that the analysis of shrubs by dendroecological methods yields highly interesting results, and they greatly improved our understanding of factors that influence individual shrub growth, the reconstruction of earlier environmental conditions as well as the reconstruction and assessment of plant population dynamics.
Weltweit nimmt der Druck auf die natürlichen Wasserressourcen zu. Dies hat unterschiedliche Gründe, ist jedoch zum größten Teil verursacht durch einen stetig ansteigenden Bedarf. Faktoren wie Bevölkerungswachstum, die In- und Extensivierung landwirtschaftlicher Produktion, veränderte Lebensstile mit gleichzeitiger Erhöhung des individuellen Wasserverbrauchs, tragen regional unterschiedlich zu einer Verknappung bei. Neben dem anthropogenem Einfluss auf Wasserressourcen stellt Klimawandel ein zusätzliches Problem dar. Viele Länder sind sich der begrenzten Verfügbarkeit ihrer Ressourcen zwar bewusst, einfache Lösungen zur nachhaltigen Bewältigung des steigenden Bedarfs existieren jedoch zumeist nicht. Momentan folgen die meisten Länder dem Paradigma des ökonomischen Wachstums, um Ernährungssicherheit, Beschäftigung und sozialen Fortschritt zu gewährleisten. Die exzessive Ausbeutung natürlicher Ressourcen stellt immer noch den Standard dar, um sozio-ökonomische Entwicklung zu ermöglichen. Daher ist bei der Vereinbarung von ökonomischem Wachstum und Umweltnachhaltigkeit nur schwer ein Fortschritt zu erkennen. In diesem Zusammenhang spielt Wasser eine Schlüsselrolle: der Zugang zu und die Nutzung von Wasser war und ist eine wesentliche Voraussetzung für sozio-ökonomische Entwicklung. In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten wurden kritische Wasserlimits trotz wachsenden Bedarfs überschritten. Demnach mangelt es in vielen Ländern an einem angepassten Wassermanagement. Zudem sind Maßnahmen zum Schutz der Wasserressourcen insbesondere im Hinblick auf eine zukünftige Nutzung unzureichend. Nord-Afrika ist eine Region mit schwerwiegenden Problemen bezüglich ausreichender Wasserverfügbarkeit. Die Übernutzung hat bereits zu einem alarmierenden Rückgang vorhandener Frischwasserressourcen geführt. Wasser ist aber gleichermaßen die Schlüsselressource für ökonomisches Wachstum und sozio-ökonomische Entwicklung. Daher ist die Implementierung einer adäquaten Wasserbedarfsteuerung unentbehrlich. Der thematische Fokus dieser Dissertation liegt auf der Analyse der problematischen Wassersituation im nordöstlichen Marokko. In der Region sind Wasserressourcen in hohem Maße vulnerabel durch einen stetig steigenden Bedarf. Dieser ist verursacht durch Bevölkerungswachstum, hohen landwirtschaftlichen Bewässerungsbedarf sowie durch die jüngst erfolgte Etablierung eines wasser-intensiven Tourismussektors. Zusätzlich wirkt sich Klimawandel auf die bereits übernutzten Ressourcen aus. Der momentane Mangel an angepassten Strategien als Antwort auf die Herausforderungen eines steigenden Bedarfs verstärkt durch Klimawandel hat negative Auswirkungen auf die regional angestrebte sozio-ökonomische Entwicklung. Diese Dissertation untersucht die Gründe einer sich verringernden regionalen Wasserverfügbarkeit unter Einbeziehung des menschlichen sowie des klimatischen Einflusses auf das Wasserbudget. Die regionale Ökonomie hängt ab von der ausreichender Wasserverfügbarkeit. Wasserpolitiken sind daher wichtig und sollten die Ursachen der Wasserprobleme realistisch betrachten. Der räumliche Rahmen vorliegender Analyse ist das Einzugsgebiet des Moulouya-Flusses. Dieses stellt eine hydrologische Einheit dar, und umfasst ca. 54.000 km2. Der Fluss selbst hat eine Länge von ca. 600 km und mündet in einem Delta mit einzigartigen Feuchtgebieten an der Küste des Mittelmeers. Der Moulouya-Fluss ist der wichtigste Frischwasserversorger der gesamten nordöstlichen Landesregion. Mit einer jährlichen Niederschlagsumme von ca. 330 mm gehört die Region zu den trockensten des Landes. Ein Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, Forschungslücken zu füllen und Information bereitzustellen, die Zusammenhänge der Exponiertheit gegenüber Wasserstress verdeutlichen können. Zudem soll die Etablierung eines verbesserten Wassermanagements als Grundlage sozio-ökonomischer Entwicklung unterstützt werden. In einer interdisziplinären Herangehensweise wird Wasserknappheit in der Region empirisch analysiert. In vier wissenschaftlichen Artikeln werden die Gründe und das Ausmaß von Vulnerabilität sowie der Entwicklungs-Governance-Kontext im Hinblick auf Wasserknappheit untersucht. Artikel I erörtert die spezifischen regionalen Probleme der Küstenzone, die sich unter starkem Entwicklungsdruck befindet und die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels bereits spürt. Artikel II kontrastiert den menschlichen Einfluss auf Frischwasserverfügbarkeit (Indikatoren: Bevölkerungswachstum, Wassernachfrage) mit den möglichen Auswirkungen einer regionalen Klimaveränderung (Indikatoren: Niederschlag, Temperaturen, Evapotranspiration). Artikel III analysiert den zusätzlichen Wasserbedarf in Nord-Ost-Marokko, der durch die Etablierung von Luxustourismusresorts entsteht, die in der Küstenzone errichtet werden. Artikel IV diskutiert die Nachhaltigkeit der regionalen Entwicklungspläne im Lichte des Wasserproblems. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Wassernachfrage die Wasserverfügbarkeit bereits überschritten hat. Bevölkerungswachstum und wasserbasierte ökonomische Entwicklung werden diesen Trend verstärken, so dass die Region mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit unter problematischen Wassermangel leiden wird. Die Analysen regionaler Klimatrends deuten hin auf eine Verschiebung der Niederschlagsmuster bei gleichzeitigem Rückgang der Niederschlagssummen. In Verbindung mit den aktuellen Nachfrageraten ist die Verfügbarkeitsgrenze bereits überschritten. Regierungspläne, die den Ausbau des Luxustourismus fördern, haben zum Ziel, die regionale Ökonomie zu diversifizieren und die Abhängigkeit vom Agrarsektor zu reduzieren. Luxustourismus ist allerdings auf permanente Wasserversorgung angewiesen und wird dadurch eine zusätzliche Belastung für die regionale Wasserverfügbarkeit darstellen. Alle vier Artikel betonen die Notwendigkeit für rasche soziale und institutionelle Antworten auf die beschriebenen Herausforderungen, um die Wasserversorgung zu gewährleisten. Daher werden folgende Empfehlungen formuliert: • Erhöhung der Wassereffizienz (z.B. durch modernisierte Bewässerungstechnologien, “green water management” für regenwasser-gespeiste Bewässerung); • Etablierung moderner Wassertechnologien zum Wasserschutz, oder unkonventioneller Wasserproduktion); • Etablierung urbaner und ländlicher Abwassersammlung und –behandlung, sowie Wiederverwertung; • Einbeziehung von Klimawandel in Berechnungen des zukünftigen Wasserbudgets; • Aufbau von kleinskaligen Wasseraufbereitungsanlagen für wasserintensive Unternehmen, z.B. Tourismusinfrastrukturen. Derartige Maßnahmen sind kostenintensiv. Dennoch ist es das Ziel dieser Dissertation zu betonen, dass natürliche Wasservorräte begrenzt und in Nord-Ost-Marokko bereits stark degradiert sind. Ein besseres Verständnis der jeweiligen Einflussfaktoren, anthropogen oder klimatisch verursacht, ist die Basis für die Implementation problem-ausgerichteter Anpassungsstrategien. Anthropogen verursachte Auswirkungen können durch Politiken beeinflusst werden. Wenn wasserbasierte Volkswirtschaften nicht adäquat auf den zunehmenden Druck auf Wasserressourcen reagieren, riskieren sie ökonomisches Scheitern.
Dendrochronology, the science of tree-rings is a tool which has been widely used for many years for understanding changes in the environment, as trees react to environmental changes over time. In the contemporary situation, where climate warming in the Arctic is unequivocal and its effects on the Alpine and tundra ecosystems are seen pronouncedly in the past decade, the role of dendro-studies and the use of trees and shrubs alike as proxies of change has become critical. Studies clearly indicate that warming in the Arctic and Alpine tundra has resulted in increased vegetation in recent years. Shrubs, in these sensitive ecosystems, have proven to be highly instrumental as they likely benefit from this warming and hence are good indicators and auditees of this change. Therefore, in this study, we investigate the potential of shrubs in the evolving field of dendro-ecology/climatology.
Studies from classical dendrochronology used annual rings from trees. Further, because of shrub sensitivity to contemporary change, shrub-based dendrochronological research has increased at a notable scale in the last decade and will likely continue. This is because shrubs grow even beyond the tree line and promise environmental records from areas where tree growth is very limited or absent. However, a common limitation noted by most shrub studies is the very hard cross-dating due to asynchronous growth patterns. This limitation poses a major hurdle in shrub-based dendrochronological studies, as it renders weak detection of common signals in growth patterns in population stands. This common signal is traced by using a ‘site-chronology’.
In this dissertation, I studied shrub growth through various resolutions, starting from understanding radial growth within individuals along the length of the stem, to comparison of radial growth responses among male and female shrubs, to comparing growth responses among trees and shrubs to investigation of biome-wide functional trait responses to current warming. Apart from Chapter 4 and Chapter 6, I largely used Juniperus communis sp. for investigations as it is the most widely distributed woody dioecious species often used in dendro-ecological investigations in the Northern Hemisphere.
Primarily, we investigated radial growth patterns within shrubs to better understand growth within individuals by comparing different stem-disks from different stem heights within individuals. We found significant differences in radial growth from different stem-disks with respect to stem heights from same individuals. Furthermore, we found that these differences depending on the choice of the stem-disk affect the resulting site-chronology and hence climate-sensitivity to a substantial extent and that the choice of a stem-disk is a crucial precursor which affects climate-growth relationships.
Secondly, we investigated if gender difference – often reported causing differential radial growth in dioecious trees – is an influential factor for heterogeneous growth. We found that at least in case of Juniperus communis. L and Juniperus communis ssp nana. WILLD there is no substantial gender biased difference in radial growth which might affect the site-chronology. We did find moderate differences between sexes in an overall analysis and attribute this to reproductive effort in females.
In our study to test the potential of shrubs for reconstruction, we used a test case of Alnus viridis ssp crispa. We found a strong correlation between ring-width indices and summer temperature. Initially, the model failed the stability tests when we tested the stability of this relation using a response function model. However, using wood-anatomical analysis we discovered that this was because of abnormal cell-wall formation resulting in very thin rings in the year 2004. Pointer year analysis revealed that the thin rings were caused because of a moth larval outbreak and when corrected for these rings the model passed all stability tests.
Furthermore, to see if trees and shrubs growing in same biomes react to environmental changes similarly, a network analysis with sites ranging from the Mediterranean biome to the Ural Mountains in Russia was carried out. We found that shrubs react better to the current climate warming and have a decoupled divergent temperature response as compared to coexisting trees. This outcome reiterated the importance of shrub studies in relation to contemporary climate change. Even though trees and shrubs are woody forms producing annual rings, they have very different growth patterns and need different methods for analysis and data treatment.
Finally, in a domain-wide network analysis from plant-community vegetation survey, we investigated functional relationships between plant traits (leaf area, plant height, leaf nitrogen content, specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf dry matter content (LDMC)) and abiotic factors viz. temperature and soil moisture. We found a strong relation between summer temperature and community height, SLA and LDMC on a spatial scale. Contrarily, the temporal-analysis revealed SLA and LDMC lagged and did not respond to temperature over the last decade. We realized that there are complex interactions between intra-specific and inter-specific plant traits which differ spatially and temporally impacting Arctic ecosystems in terms of carbon turn over, surface albedo, water balance and heat-energy fluxes. We found that ecosystem functions in the Arctic are closely linked with plant height and will be indicative of warming in the short term future becoming key factors in modelling ecosystem projections.
Individual white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) growth limitations at treelines in Alaska
(2018)
White spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) is one of the most common conifers in Alaska and various treelines mark the species distribution range. Because treelines positions are driven by climate and because climate change is estimated to be strongest in northern latitudes, treeline shifts appear likely. However, species range shifts depend on various species parameters, probably most importantly on phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation
and dispersal. Due to their long generation cycles and their immobility, trees evolved to endure a wide variety of climatic conditions. In most locations, interannual climate variability is larger than the expected climate change until 2100. Thus treeline position is typically thought of as the integrated effect of multiple years and to lag behind gradual climate change by several decades. Past dendrochronological studies revealed that growth of white spruce in Alaska can be limited by several climatic variables, in particular water stress and low temperatures. Depending on how the intensity of climate warming, this could result in a leading range edge at treelines limited by low temperatures and trailing treelines where soil moisture is or becomes most limiting. Climate-growth correlations are the dendrochronological version of reaction norms and describe the relationship between an environmental variable and traits like tree-ring parameters (e.g. ring width, wood density, wood anatomy). These correlations can be used to explore potential effects of climate change on a target species. However, it is known that individuals differ with respect to multiple variables like size, age, microsite conditions, competition status or their genome. Such individual differences could be important because they can modulate climate-growth relationships and consequently also range shifts and growth trends. Removing individual differences by averaging tree-ring parameters of many individuals into site chronologies could be an oversimplification that might bias estimates of future white spruce performance. Population dynamics that emerge from the interactions of individuals (e.g. competition) and the range of reactions to the same environmental drivers can only be studied via individual tree analyses. Consequently, this thesis focuses on factors that might alter individual white spruce’ climate sensitivity and methods to assess such effects. In particular, the research articles included explore three topics:
1. First, clones were identified via microsatellites and high-frequency climate signals of clones were compared to that of non-clonal individuals. Clonal and non-clonal individuals showed similar high-frequency climate signals which allows to use clonal and non-clonal individuals to construct mean site chronologies. However, clones were more frequently found under the harsher environmental conditions at the treelines which could be of interest for the species survival strategy at alpine treelines and is further explored in the associated RESPONSE project A5 by David Würth.
2. In the second article, methods for the exploration and visualization of individual-tree differences in climate sensitivity are described. These methods represent a toolbox to explore causes for the variety of different climate sensitivities found in individual
trees at the same site. Though, overlaying gradients of multiple factors like temperature, tree density and/or tree height can make it difficult to attribute a single cause to the range of reaction norms (climate growth correlations).
3. Lastly, the third article attempts to disentangle the effect of age and size on climate-growth correlations. Multiple past studies found that trees of different Ages responded differently to climatic drivers. In contrast, other studies found that trees do not age like many other organisms. Age and size of a trees are roughly correlated, though there are large differences in the growth rate of trees, which can lead to smaller trees that are older than taller trees. Consequently, age is an imperfect Proxy for size and in contrast to age, size has been shown to affect wood anatomy and thus tree physiology. The article compares two tree-age methods and one tree-size method based on cumulative ring width. In line with previous research on aging and Wood anatomy, tree size appeared to be the best predictor to explain ontogenetic changes in white spruce’ climate sensitivity. In particular, tallest trees exhibited strongest correlations with water stress in previous year July. In conclusion, this thesis is about factors that can alter climate-growth relationships (reaction norms) of white spruce. The results emphasize that interactions between climate variables and other factors like tree size or competition status are important for estimates of future tree growth and potential treeline shifts. In line with previous studies on white spruce in Alaska, the results of this thesis underline the importance of water stress for white spruce.
Individuals that are taller and that have more competitors for water appear to be most susceptible to the potentially drier future climate in Alaska. While tree ring based growth trends estimates of white spruce are difficult to derive due to multiple overlaying low frequency (>10 years) signals, all investigated treeline sites showed highest growth at the treeline edge. This could indicate expanding range edges. However, a potential bottleneck for treeline advances and retreats could be seedling establishment, which should be explored in more detail in the future.
Tree growth at northern boreal treelines is generally limited by summer temperature, hence tree rings serve as natural archives of past climatic conditions. However, there is increasing evidence that a changing summer climate as well as certain micro-site conditions can lead to a weakening or loss of the summer temperature signal in trees growing in treeline environments. This phenomenon poses a challenge to all applications relying on stable temperature-growth relationships such as temperature reconstructions and dynamic vegetation models. We tested the effect of differing ecological and climatological conditions on the summer temperature signal of Scots pine at its northern distribution limits by analyzing twelve sites distributed along a 2200 km gradient from Finland to Western Siberia (Russia). Two frequently used proxies in dendroclimatology, ring width and maximum latewood density, were correlated with summer temperature for the period 1901–2013 separately for (i) dry vs. wet micro-sites and (ii) years with dry/warm vs. wet/cold climate regimes prevailing during the growing season. Differing climate regimes significantly affected the temperature signal of Scots pine at about half of our sites: While correlations were stronger in wet/cold than in dry/warm years at most sites located in Russia, differing climate regimes had only little effect at Finnish sites. Both tree-ring proxies were affected in a similar way. Interestingly, micro-site differences significantly affected absolute tree growth, but had only minor effects on the climatic signal at our sites. We conclude that, despite the treeline-proximal location, growth-limiting conditions seem to be exceeded in dry/warm years at most Russian sites, leading to a weakening or loss of the summer temperature signal in Scots pine here. With projected temperature increase, unstable summer temperature signals in Scots pine tree rings might become more frequent, possibly affecting dendroclimatological applications and related fields.
Species have to cope with climate change either by migration or by adaptation and acclimatisation. Especially for long-living tree species with a low seed dispersal capacity (e.g. European beech, hereafter called beech), the in situ responses through genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play an important role for their persistence. Beech, the dominant climax tree species in Central Europe, shows a high drought sensitivity and its distribution range is expected to shift northwards. On the other hand, projected northward shifts need to be taken with caution, as some studies suggest a sensitivity of beech to frost events in winter and spring. However, studies on the growth performance of cold-marginal beech populations are still rare. Previous studies on beech populations found local adaptation to drought and phenotypic plasticity in fitness-related traits as well as phenological traits. However, studies on the regeneration of beech under natural conditions are yet missing, although germination and establishment of young trees are a very first selective bottleneck and are crucial for tree population persistence and for successful range shifts.
This PhD-thesis aimed to identify the potential of plasticity and local adaptation in the important early life-history traits germination, establishment after the 1st year, and survival after the 2nd year in a reciprocal transplantation experiment at 11 sites across and even beyond the distribution range of beech (Manuscript 1). Moreover, this thesis investigated the climate sensitivity and the adaptation potential of beech populations by conducting dendroecological studies along a large climatic gradient across the distribution range (Manuscript 2) and along a strong winter temperature gradient towards the cold distribution margin in Poland (Manuscript 3). In addition, the impact of local climatic singularities was studied in a local study at the southern margin (Manuscript 4).
Warm and dry conditions limited natural regeneration, which was indicated by very low survival of young trees, even though germination rates increased with increasing temperature (Manuscript 1). This was also the case in parts of the distribution centre due to the hot and dry conditions in 2018. Although the transplantation experiment revealed high plasticity in the early life-history traits, this plasticity might thus not buffer against climate change under dry conditions. Local adaptation was not detected for any of these traits along the climatic gradient. In contrast, the results of the dendroecological study across the gradient (Manuscript 2) hint towards an adaptation potential of adult trees to drought at the southern margin. Thus, adult trees seemed to be adapted to drought at the southern margin, whereas tree growth in the distribution centre was sensitive to drought. These results indicate that parts of the centre may become ecologically marginal with increasing drought frequency in times of climate change. Interestingly, Manuscript 4 shows that beech growth was positively influenced by frequent fog immersion at the southern distribution margin in north-eastern Spain. This study underlines the importance of local climatic singularities, as they may allow marginal populations to grow in climate refugia in an otherwise unfavourable climate.
At the cold distribution margin, the study in Manuscript 1 found a remarkably higher survival of young trees in Sweden than in Poland. Moreover, the dendroecological studies revealed that beech was hampered by both drought at the cold-dry margin (Manuscript 2) and by winter cold at the cold-wet margin in Poland (Manuscript 3). All these results highlight the importance to study climate sensitivity of adult trees and the response of early life-history traits at the cold margin with a more differentiated view comparing cold-dry against the cold-wet populations and growing conditions. However, the high plasticity of the early life-history traits may allow for an increasing germination rate with climate warming at the northern margin and may thus facilitate natural regeneration there. In contrast, the dendroecological studies suggest that adult trees at the cold distribution margin may suffer either from drought or from winter cold and that the risk for spring frost may increase. Thus, the often-predicted compensation of dry-marginal population decline by a northward range expansion should be discussed more critically.
In conclusion, my PhD thesis provides new knowledge about the potential of natural regeneration and about climate sensitivity of adult trees across the distribution range of beech. Moreover, it underlines the importance to study both the young tree stages as well as adult trees to assess the performance and vulnerability of tree species under climate change, as both showed differences in their response to changing environmental conditions.
Tree growth in northern and upper treeline ecotones of the circumpolar boreal forest is
generally limited by temperature, i.e., trees grow generally more under warm, and less under
cold climatic conditions. Based on the assumption that this relationship between tree growth
and climate is linear and stable through time, dendroclimatologists use tree rings as natural
archives to reconstruct past temperature conditions. Such tree-ring based reconstructions,
together with other natural archives (e.g., ice cores and pollen), constitute our understanding of
past climatic conditions that reach beyond modern instrumental records.
However, a steadily increasing amount of studies reports a recent reduction or loss of the
summer temperature signal for several species and sites of the boreal forest. Such a reduction
of temperature sensitivity results in temporally unstable climate-tree growth relationships,
which challenges the work of dendroclimatologists by potentially leading to miscalibrations of
past climatic conditions. On the upside, this shift in the trees’ climate sensitivity might point to
a shift in tree growth-limiting factors and thus serve as an early indicator of climate change
impacts. There is evidence that this recent reduction in temperature sensitivity might be caused
by the observed strong temperature increase at high latitudes, and thus temperature-induced
drought stress. Other potential drivers and amplifiers of this phenomenon are differing microsite
conditions (dry vs. wet soils) and factors inherent to trees, like genetic properties or age
effects.
In this PhD thesis, I systematically assessed the effects of frequently discussed drivers of
unstable climate-tree growth relationships (climate change, micro-site effects, genetical
predisposition) on two representative species of the boreal forest, white spruce in North
America and Scots pine in Eurasia, across various temporal and spatial scales. I used classical
(tree-ring width) and more novel (wood density, quantitative wood anatomy)
dendrochronological proxies to unravel the effects from annual to sub-monthly resolution.
More precisely, in chapter I, white spruce clones were compared to non-clones at two treeline
sites in Alaska to test whether their growth patterns differ, and whether white spruce clones are
generally suitable for dendroclimatic assessments. Clonal reproduction is frequent at treeline
due to harsh conditions, but might lead to competition among individuals due to the close
proximity among each other, which in turn might obscure their climatic signal. Second, I tested
the effect of warmer and drier climatic conditions on the summer temperature signal of Scots
pine in Eurasia (chapter II) and on the growing season moisture signal of white spruce in North
America (chapter III), respectively. Temperature-induced drought stress is expected to be the
most important driver of unstable climate-growth relationships in the boreal forest. I included
several sites across latitudinal (50-150 km) and longitudinal (1,000-2,200 km) gradients to
cover large parts of the species’ distribution ranges. Since Scots pine covers a wide range of
ecological habitats, I additionally tested the effect of dry and wet micro-site conditions on the
summer temperature signal of Scots pine in chapter II. Finally, in chapter IV, a systematic
literature review was carried out in order to investigate the distribution of unstable climategrowth
relationships in global tree-ring studies, and the usage of such series in climate
reconstructions. Furthermore, the scientific impact of these potentially inaccurate climate
reconstructions was assessed.
In this PhD project, warmer and drier climatic conditions led to temporally unstable climate
signals in both Scots pine (chapter II) and white spruce (chapter III), as expected. Unstable
climate-growth relationships were found for all tested tree-ring proxies and at all sites in North
America, and at most sites in Eurasia. Micro-site effects (chapter II) and clonal growth
(chapter I) had no significant effect on the climate sensitivity and high-frequency variability
of the tested species, but affected absolute growth. The review (chapter IV) revealed that the
phenomenon of unstable climate-growth relationships is globally widespread, and occurs
independent of tree species, geographic location, and tree-ring and climate proxies. While
reconstructions inferred from these unstable relationships are frequent and respective papers
have a high impact, the tree-ring community seems to increasingly recognize the challenge of
unstable climate-growth relationships.
With these findings, this PhD project helped to shed more light on the frequency, underlying
drivers, and the impact of unstable climate-growth relationships in boreal forest trees, as well
as underlying reaction processes in trees. Above all, this PhD project suggests that the loss of
climate sensitivity is caused by a change of growth limiting factors: temperature limitation
seems to be suspended in warmer and drier years for Scots pine in Eurasia, and moisture
limitation first arises under warm/dry conditions for white spruce in North America. Due to
plastic growth responses in trees, the general assumption in dendroclimatology – that climategrowth
relationships are stable through time – seems to be incompatible with the principle of
limiting factors (one factors is always most growth limiting).
To improve the validity of future climate reconstructions, statistical approaches considering
synchronously or changing climatic limiting factors need to be promoted, along with attempts
to select the best responding trees from a dataset. Furthermore, a better understanding of nonclimatic
factors potentially affecting tree growth (e.g., age, disturbance, soil parameters) is
needed. A growth reduction of mature and dominant white spruce trees sampled in this PhD
project seems likely under future warming conditions, with series of wood cells being valuable
early indicators of climate change effects in white spruce. However, inferences cannot be
extended to the entire stand due to the applied sample design. Projected climate warming will
probably lead to a further reduction of the summer temperature signal in trees of the northern
boreal forest, while wider consequences for forest growth and productivity are unclear.