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The pollen record is a powerful proxy to reconstruct past terrestrial vegetation, but quantifying plant abundances is strongly limited because plants produce pollen in different amounts and pollen is dispersed differently. Further complications arise from the use of percentage data. Finally, a pollen grain deposited at a site may have arrived from proximate or distant sources, which implies that a single pollen sample may reflect very different vegetation scenarios. Present thesis suggests improving quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation by refined calibration of the pollen-vegetation relationship (paper I) and application of the downscaling approach (papers II-IV). Paper I primarily addresses the questions of pollen production and dispersal by calibrating the pollen-vegetation relationship. Data analysis employs the common extended R-value (ERV) approach and a new data-model comparison method, which appears more suitable than the ERV approach. For the first time PPEs have been calculated using three contrasting pollen dispersal options, including a Lagrangian stochastic (LS) model. The study proves that the underlying pollen dispersal model is a crucial parameter in PPE calculations and that the calculations with the LS model produce more reliable and realistic PPEs. Papers II to IV address quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation. Using the newly developed downscaling approach, the three studies explore fine scaled vegetation patterns in NE Germany during the Late Glacial and early Holocene. The main assumption of the downscaling approach is that the present day pattern of abiotic site conditions (e.g. the pattern of soil substrates) existed, at least to a large extend, also during the study periods. The basic principle of the approach is to test, whether pollen deposition in sites across a landscape is correlated to that site pattern. The first application of the approach (paper II) has shown a close correlation between PINUS pollen percentages and the distance weighted abundance of sandy soils and between BETULA pollen percentages and the distance weighted abundance of morainic till during the Allerød period, indicating that pine and birch formed rather separate stands on either substrate type. The cooling of the Younger Dryas induced significant changes in the vegetation of NE Germany. By combining pollen percentage and pollen accumulation rate data paper III identified a sharp vegetation boundary between the Mecklenburg and Brandenburg area at about 53 °N. The downscaling approach, here used with pollen accumulation rate data, suggests that in the North small tree stands could only exist in sheltered positions. The sharp vegetation boundary is possibly related to a climatic gradient and the southern permafrost limit, which itself may result from the formation of sea ice on the North Atlantic north of 53°N during winter. The warming of the Holocene again allowed the expansion of forests in the study area. Paper IV uses high resolution pollen (accumulation rate) data to study the successive forest formation, including the immigration of hazel, and explores vegetation patterns and composition during these successive stages using the extended downscaling approach. This approach addresses the problems related to differential pollen production, dispersal and the use of percentage data by applying simulations. It reveals that initially pine and birch established, as during the Allerød period, in largely separate stands with pine dominating on sandy soils and birch dominating on fine grained soils. Also open rich vegetation persisted, possibly due to seasonal drought, mainly on fine grained soils. Hazel later mainly spread on sites that received additional wetness from ground or surface water; it did not enter pine dominated forests on well drained sandy soils. Overall, the early Holocene vegetation of the study area was sharply differentiated by soil humidity and fertility. To conclude, present thesis has revealed vegetation patterns and species site preferences in NE Germany during three periods of the Lateglacial and early Holocene. The results improve our understanding of vegetation history in northern Central Europe, specifically for periods of rapid climate change. The approaches applied are flexible with respect to the type and quality of pollen data used and may be implemented using standard software packages.
Quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation cover commonly require pollen productivity estimates (PPEs). PPEs are calibrated in extensive and rather cumbersome surface-sample studies, and are so far only available for selected regions. Moreover, it may be questioned whether present-day pollen-landcover relationships are valid for palaeo-situations. We here introduce the ROPES approach that simultaneously derives PPEs and mean plant abundances from single pollen records. ROPES requires pollen counts and pollen accumulation rates (PARs, grains cm−2 year−1). Pollen counts are used to reconstruct plant abundances following the REVEALS approach. The principle of ROPES is that changes in plant abundance are linearly represented in observed PAR values. For example, if the PAR of pine doubles, so should the REVEALS reconstructed abundance of pine. Consequently, if a REVEALS reconstruction is “correct” (i.e., “correct” PPEs are used) the ratio “PAR over REVEALS” is constant for each taxon along all samples of a record. With incorrect PPEs, the ratio will instead vary. ROPES starts from random (likely incorrect) PPEs, but then adjusts them using an optimization algorithm with the aim to minimize variation in the “PAR over REVEALS” ratio across the record. ROPES thus simultaneously calculates mean plant abundances and PPEs. We illustrate the approach with test applications on nine synthetic pollen records. The results show that good performance of ROPES requires data sets with high underlying variation, many samples and low noise in the PAR data. ROPES can deliver first landcover reconstructions in regions for which PPEs are not yet available. The PPEs provided by ROPES may then allow for further REVEALS-based reconstructions. Similarly, ROPES can provide insight in pollen productivity during distinct periods of the past such as the Lateglacial. We see a potential to study spatial and temporal variation in pollen productivity for example in relation to site parameters, climate and land use. It may even be possible to detect expansion of non-pollen producing areas in a landscape. Overall, ROPES will help produce more accurate landcover reconstructions and expand reconstructions into new study regions and non-analog situations of the past. ROPES is available within the R package DISQOVER.
Pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) are a key parameter for quantitative land-cover reconstructions from pollen data. PPEs are commonly estimated using modern pollen-vegetation data sets and the extended R-value (ERV) model. Prominent discrepancies in the existing studies question the reliability of the approach. We here propose an implementation of the ERV model in the R environment for statistical computing, which allows for simplified application and testing. Using simulated pollen-vegetation data sets, we explore sensitivity of ERV application to (1) number of sites, (2) vegetation structure, (3) basin size, (4) noise in the data, and (5) dispersal model selection. The simulations show that noise in the (pollen) data and dispersal model selection are critical factors in ERV application. Pollen count errors imply prominent PPE errors mainly for taxa with low counts, usually low pollen producers. Applied with an unsuited dispersal model, ERV tends to produce wrong PPEs for additional taxa. In a comparison of the still widely applied Prentice model and a Lagrangian stochastic model (LSM), errors are highest for taxa with high and low fall speed of pollen. The errors reflect the too high influence of fall speed in the Prentice model. ERV studies often use local scale pollen data from for example, moss polsters. Describing pollen dispersal on his local scale is particularly complex due to a range of disturbing factors, including differential release height. Considering the importance of the dispersal model in the approach, and the very large uncertainties in dispersal on short distance, we advise to carry out ERV studies with pollen data from open areas or basins that lack local pollen deposition of the taxa of interest.
Lake‐level reconstructions are a key tool in hydro‐climate reconstructions, based on the assumption that lake‐level changes primarily reflect climatic changes. Although it is known that land cover changes can affect evapotranspiration and groundwater formation, this factor commonly receives little attention in the interpretation of past lake‐level changes. To address this issue in more detail, we explore the effects of land cover change on Holocene lake‐level fluctuations in Lake Tiefer See in the lowlands of northeastern Germany. We reconstruct lake‐level changes based on the analysis of 28 sediment records from different water depths and from the shore. We compare the results with land cover changes inferred from pollen data. We also apply hydrological modelling to quantify effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and the lake level. Our reconstruction shows an overall lake‐level amplitude of about 10 m during the Holocene, with the highest fluctuations during the Early and Late Holocene. Only smaller fluctuations during the Middle Holocene can unambiguously be attributed to climatic fluctuations because the land cover was stable during that period. Fluctuations during the Early and Late Holocene are at least partly related to changes in natural and anthropogenic land cover. For several intervals the reconstructed lake‐level changes agree well with variations in modelled groundwater recharge inferred from land cover changes. In general, the observed amplitudes of lake‐level fluctuations are larger than expected from climatic changes alone and thus underline that land cover changes in lake catchments must be considered in climatic interpretations of past lake‐level fluctuations.
To understand the resilience of African savannas to global change, quantitative information on the long-term dynamics of vegetation is required. Past dynamics can be reconstructed with the REVEALS model, which requires pollen productivity estimates (PPE) that are calibrated using surface pollen and vegetation data. Here we calculated PPE values for five savanna taxa using the extended R-value (ERV) model and two pollen dispersal options: the Gaussian plume model (GPM) and the Lagrangian stochastic model (LSM). The ERV calculations failed to produce a reliable PPE for Poaceae. We therefore used Combretaceae as the reference taxon – although values obtained with Poaceae as the reference taxon are presented in the supplement. Our results indicate that Combretaceae is the taxon with the highest pollen productivity and Grewia the taxon with the lowest productivity. Acacia and Dichrostachys are intermediate pollen producers. We find no clear indication of whether the GPM PPEs or the LSM PPEs are more realistic, but the differences between these values confirmed that the pollen fall speed has a greater effect in the modelling of GPM than in the LSM. We also applied REVEALS to the pollen record of Lake Otjikoto (northern Namibia) and obtained the first quantitative reconstruction of the last 130 years of vegetation history in the region. Cover estimates for Poaceae indicate the predominance of a semi-open landscape throughout the 20th century, while cover values below 50% since the 21st century correspond to a thick savanna. This change in grass cover is associated with the spread of Vachellia, Senegalia and Grewia reflecting an encroached state.