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Statistical Methods and Applications for Biomarker Discovery Using Large Scale Omics Data Set
(2023)
This thesis focuses on identifying genetic factors associated with human kidney disease progression, with three articles presented. Article I describes the identification of loci associated with UACR through trans-ethnic, European-ancestry-specific, and diabetes-specific meta-analyses. An approximate conditional analysis was performed to identify additional independent UACR-associated variants within identified loci. The genome-wide significance level of 𝛼=5×10−8 is used for both primary GWAS association and conditional analyses. However, unlike primary association tests, conditional tests are limited to specific genomic regions surrounding primary GWAS index signals rather than being applied on a genome-wide scale.
In article II, we hypothesized that the application of 𝛼=5×10−8 is overly strict and results in a loss of power. To address this issue, we developed a quasi-adaptive method within a weighted hypothesis testing framework. This method exploits the type I error (𝛼=0.05) by providing less conservative SNP specific 𝛼-thresholds to select secondary signals in conditional analysis. Through simulation studies and power analyses, we demonstrate that the quasi-adaptive method outperforms the established criterion 𝛼=5×10−8 as well as the equal weighting scheme (the Sidak-correction). Furthermore, our method performs well when applied to real datasets and can potentially reveal previously undetected secondary signals in existing data.
In article III, we extended our quasi-adaptive method to identify plausible multiple independent signals at each locus (a secondary signal, a tertiary signal, a signal of 4th, and beyond) and applied it to the publically available GWAS meta-analysis to detect additional multiple independent eGFR-associated signals. The improved quasi-adaptive method successfully identified additional novel replicated independent SNPs that would have gone undetected by applying too conservative genome-wide significance level of 𝛼=5× 10−8. Colocalization analysis based on the novel independent signals identified potentially functional genes across the kidney and other tissues.
Overall, these articles contribute to the understanding of genetic factors associated with human kidney disease progression and provide novel methods for identifying secondary and multiple independent signals in conditional GWAS analyses.
Plus‐strand RNA [(+)RNA] viruses are the largest group of viruses, medically highly relevant human pathogens, and are a socio‐economic burden. The current global pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) shows how a virus has been rapidly spreading around the globe and that– without an antiviral treatment– virus trans mission is solely dependent on human behavior. However, other (+)RNA viruses such as rhino‐, noro‐, dengue‐ (DENV), Zika, and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are constantly spreading and expanding geographically. As in the case of hepatitis C, since its first identification in the 1970s, it took more than 30 years to understand the HCV structure, genome organiza t ion, life cycle, and virus‐host interplay leading to the cure of a chronic and life‐threatening disease. However, no vaccination or antiviral treatment exists for most (+)RNA viruses. Con sequently, a precise and comprehensive analysis of the viruses, their life cycles, and parasitic interactions with their hosts remains an important field of research. In the presented thesis, we use mathematical modeling to study the life cycles of (+)RNA viruses. We analyze replication strategies of closely related (+)RNA viruses, namely HCV, DENV, and coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3), to compare their life cycles in the presence and ab sence of the host’s immune response and antiviral drug treatment and consider different viral spreading mechanisms. Host dependency factors shape the viral life cycle, contribut ing to permissiveness and replication efficiency. Our mathematical models predicted that host dependency factors, such as ribosomes, and thus the virus’ ability to hijack the host cell’s translation machinery play an essential role in the viral genome replication efficiency. Furthermore, our mathematical model suggested that the availability of ribosomes in the vi ral life cycle is a crucial factor in disease outcome: the development of an acute or chronic disease. Even though the host developed strategies to attack the virus, e.g., by degrading the viral genome, blocking the viral protein production, and preventing viral spread, viruses found strategies to countermeasure those so‐called host restriction factors derived from the immune system. Our mathematical models predicted that DENV might be highly effective in blocking the cell’s attempts to recognize the invader. Moreover, we found ongoing HCV RNAreplication even with highly effective antiviral drugs that block processes in the viral life cycle. Furthermore, we found alternative pathways of infection spread, e.g., by HCV RNA carrying exosomes, which may be a possible explanation for reported plasma HCV RNA at the end of treatment, found in a subset of patients. Hence, the mathematical models presented in this thesis provide valuable tools to study the viral replication mechanism in detail. Even though being a simplification of reality, our model predictions confirm and explain known and suggest novel biological mechanisms. In the pre sented thesis, I will summarize and discuss key findings and contextualize model predictions in the broader scientific literature to improve our understanding of the viral dynamics and the virus‐host interplay.
Gram-negative bacteria secrete lipopolysaccharides (LPS), leading to a host immune
response of proinflammatory cytokine secretion. Those proinflammatory cytokines are
TNF-α and IFN-γ, which induce the production of indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO). IDO production is increased during severe sepsis, and septic shock. High IDO
levels are associated with increased mortality. This enzyme catalyzes the degradation of tryptophan (TRP) to kynurenine (KYN) along the kynurenine pathway (KP).
KYN is further degraded to kynurenic acid (KYNA). Increased IDO levels accompany
with increased levels of KYNA, which is associated with immunoparalysis.
Due to its central role, the KP is a potential target of therapeutic intervention.
The degradation of TRP to KYN by IDO was intervened by 1-Methyltryptophan (1-
MT), which is assumed to inhibit IDO. By administering 1-MT, the survival of
1-MT-treated mice suffering from sepsis increased compared to mice not treated with
1-MT. The levels of downstream metabolites such as KYN and KYNA were
expected to be decreased. Surprisingly, in healthy mice and pigs, an increase in KYNA
after 1-MT administration was reported. Those unexpected metabolite alterations after 1-MT administration, and the mode of action, were not the focus of recent
research. Hence, there is no explanation for KYNA increase, while KYN did not change.
This thesis aims to postulate a possible degradation pathway of 1-MT along the KP
with the help of ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems.
Moreover, the developed ODE models were used to determine the ability of 1-MT to
inhibit IDO in vivo. Therefore, a multiplicity of ODE models were developed, including
a model of the KP, an extension by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration, and 1-MT
administration.
Moreover, seven ODE models were developed, all considering possible degradation pathways of 1-MT. The most likely degradation pathway was combined with the ODE model
of LPS administration, including the inhibitory effects of 1-MT.
Those models consist of several dependent equations describing the dynamics of the KP.
For each component of the KP, one equation describes the alterations over time. Equations for TRP, KYN, KYNA, and quinolinic acid (QUIN) were developed.
Moreover, the alterations of serotonin (SER) were also included. All together belong
to the TRP metabolism. They include the degradation of TRP to SER and to KYN,
which is further degraded to KYNA and QUIN. Every degradation is catalyzed by an enzyme. Therefore, Michaelis-Menten (MM) equations were used employing the substrate
constant Km and the maximal degradation velocity Vmax. To reduce the complexity of
parameter calculation, Km values of the different enzymes were fixed to literature values.
The remaining parameters of the equations were determined so that the trajectories of
the calculated metabolite levels correspond to data. The parameters of different models were determined. To propose a degradation pathway of 1-MT leading to increased
KYNA levels, seven models were developed and compared. The most likely model was
extended to test whether the inhibitory effects of 1-MT on IDO can be determined.
Three different approaches determined the ODE model parameters of the different hypothesis of 1-MT degradation. In the first approach, ODE model parameters were fixed
to values fitted to an independent data set. In the second approach, parameters were
fitted to a subset of the data set, which was used for simulations of the different hypotheses. The third approach calculated ODE model parameters 100 times without
fixed parameters. The parameter set ending up in trajectories of the TRP metabolites,
which have the smallest distance to the data, was assumed to be the most likely. The
ODE model parameters were fitted to data measured in pigs. Two different
experimental models delivered data used in this thesis. The first experimental model
activates IDO by LPS administration in pigs. The second one combines the IDO
activation by LPS with the administration of 1-MT in pigs.
The most likely hypothesis, according to approach 1 was the degradation of 1-MT to
KYNA and TRP. For the second data set the most likely one was the direct degradation of 1-MT to KYNA. With approach 2 the most likely degradation pathways were
the combination of all degradation pathways and the degradation of 1-MT to TRP and
TRP to KYNA. With approach 3 the most likely way of KYNA increase was given by
the direct degradation of 1-MT to KYNA. In summary, the three approaches revealed
hypothesis 2, the direct degradation of 1-MT to KYNA most frequently. A cell-free
assay validated this result. This experiment combined 1-MT or TRP with or without
the enzyme kynurenine aminotransferase (KAT). KAT was already shown to degrade
TRP directly to KYNA. The levels of TRP, KYN and KYNA were measured. The
highest KYNA levels were yielded with an assay adding KAT to 1-MT, corresponding
to hypothesis 2. The models describing the inhibitory effects of 1-MT revealed that
the model without inhibitory effects of 1-MT on IDO was more likely for all three approaches.
The correctness of hypothesis 2 has to be confirmed by further in vitro experiments. It
also has to be investigated which reactions promote the degradation of 1-MT to KYNA.
The missing inhibitory properties of 1-MT on IDO, determined by the in silico ODE
models, align with previous research. It was shown that the saturation of 1-MT was too
low, e.g. in pigs, to inhibit IDO efficiently.
In this study, the first possible degradation pathway of 1-MT along the KP is proposed.
The reliability of the results depends on the quality of the experimental data, and the
season, when data were measured. Moreover, the results vary between the different
approaches of parameter fitting. Different approaches of parameter fitting have to be
included in the analysis to get more evidence for the correctness of the results.
Background
Previous work has focused on speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE)-derived global longitudinal and circumferential peak strain as potential superior prognostic metric markers compared with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, the value of regional distribution and the respective orientation of left ventricular wall motion (quantified as strain and derived from STE) for survival prediction have not been investigated yet. Moreover, most of the recent studies on risk stratification in primary and secondary prevention do not use neural networks for outcome prediction.
Purpose
To evaluate the performance of neural networks for predicting all cause-mortality with different model inputs in a moderate-sized general population cohort.
Methods
All participants of the second cohort of the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-TREND-0) without prior cardiovascular disease (CVD; acute myocardial infarction, cardiac surgery/intervention, heart failure and stroke) and with transthoracic echocardiography exams were followed for all-cause mortality from baseline examination (2008-2012) until 2019.
A novel deep neural network architecture ‘nnet-Surv-rcsplines’, that extends the Royston-Parmar- cubic splines survival model to neural networks was proposed and applied to predict all-cause mortality from STE-derived global and/or regional myocardial longitudinal, circumferential, transverse, and radial strain in addition to the components of the ESC SCORE model. The models were evaluated by 8.5-year area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic (AUROC) and (scaled) Brier score [(S)BS]and compared to the SCORE model adjusted for mortality rates in Germany in 2010.
Results
In total, 3858 participants (53 % female, median age 51 years) were followed for a median time of 8.4 (95 % CI 8.3 – 8.5) years. Application of ‘nnet-Surv-rcsplines’ to the components of the ESC SCORE model alone resulted in the best discriminatory performance (AUROC 0.9 [0.86-0.91]) and lowest prediction error (SBS 21[18-23] %). The latter was significantly lower (p <0.001) than the original SCORE model (SBS 11 [9.5 - 13] %), while discrimination did not differ significantly. There was no difference in (S)BS (p= 0.66) when global circumferential and longitudinal strain were added to the model. Solely including STE-data resulted in an informative (AUROC 0.71 [0.69, 0.74]; SBS 3.6 [2.8-4.6] %) but worse (p<0.001) model performance than when considering the sociodemographic and instrumental biomarkers, too.
Conclusion
Regional myocardial strain distribution contains prognostic information for predicting all-cause mortality in a primary prevention sample of subjects without CVD. Still, the incremental prognostic value of STE parameters was not demonstrated. Application of neural networks on available traditional risk factors in primary prevention may improve outcome prediction compared to standard statistical approaches and lead to better treatment decisions.
A lot of research data has become available since the outbreak of the COVID-19
pandemic in 2019. Connecting this data is essential for the understanding of the
SARS-CoV-2 virus and the fight against the pandemic.
Amongst biological and biomedical research data, computational models targeting
COVID-19 have been emerging and their number is growing constantly. They are a
central part of the field of Systems Biology, which aims to understand the mechanisms
and behaviour of biological systems. Model predictions help to understand the
mechanisms of the novel coronavirus and the life-threatening disease it is causing.
Both biomedical research data and modelling data regarding COVID-19 have
previously been stored in separated domain-specific graph databases. MaSyMoS,
short for Management System for Models and Simulations, is a graph database for
storing simulation studies of biological and biochemical systems. The CovidGraph
project integrates research data regarding COVID-19 and the coronavirus family
from various data resources in a knowledge graph.
In this thesis, we integrate simulation models from MaSyMoS, including models
targeting COVID-19, into the CovidGraph. Therefore, we present a concept for
the integration of simulation studies and the linkage through ontology terms and
reference publications in the CovidGraph. Ultimately, we connect data from the field
of systems biology and biomedical research data in a graph database.
Geometric T-Duality
(2022)
From a physicists point of view T-duality is a relation connecting string
theories on different spacetimes. Mathematically speaking, T-duality should be a symmetric relation on
the space of toroidal string backgrounds. Such a background consists of: a smooth manifold M; a torus bundle E over M - the total space modelling spacetime; a Riemannian metric g on E - modelling the field of gravity; a U(1)-bundle gerbe G with connection over E - modelling the Kalb-
Ramond field.
But as of now no complete model for T-duality exists. The three most notable
approaches for T-duality are given by the differential approaches by Buscher in the form of the Buscher rules and by Bouwknegt, Evslin and Mathai in the form of T-duality with H-flux on the one hand, and by the topological approach given by Bunke, Rumpf and Schick which is known as topological T-duality. In this thesis we combine these different approaches to form the first model for T-duality over complete geometric toroidal string backgrounds and we will introduce an example for this geometric T-duality inspired by the Hopf bundle.
Discovering Latent Structure in High-Dimensional Healthcare Data: Toward Improved Interpretability
(2022)
This cumulative thesis describes contributions to the field of interpretable machine learning in the healthcare domain. Three research articles are presented that lie at the intersection of biomedical and machine learning research. They illustrate how incorporating latent structure can provide a valuable compression of the information hidden in complex healthcare data.
Methodologically, this thesis gives an overview of interpretable machine learning and the discovery of latent structure, including clusters, latent factors, graph structure, and hierarchical structure. Different workflows are developed and applied to two main types of complex healthcare data (cohort study data and time-resolved molecular data). The core result builds on Bayesian networks, a type of probabilistic graphical model. On the application side, we provide accurate predictive or discriminative models focusing on relevant medical conditions, related biomarkers, and their interactions.
Spatial variation in survival has individual fitness consequences and influences population dynamics. It proximately and ultimately impacts space use including migratory connectivity. Therefore, knowing spatial patterns of survival is crucial to understand demography of migrating animals. Extracting information on survival and space use from observation data, in particular dead recovery data, requires explicitly identifying the observation process. The main aim of this work is to establish a modeling framework which allows estimating spatial variation in survival, migratory connectivity and observation probability using dead recovery data. We provide some biological background on survival and migration and a short methodological overview of how similar situations are modeled in literature.
Afterwards, we provide REML-like estimators for discrete space and show identifiability of all three parameters using the characteristics of the multinomial distribution. Moreover, we formulate a model in continuous space using mixed binomial point processes. The continuous model assumes a constant recovery probability over space. To drop this strict assumption, we develop an optimization procedure combining the discrete and continuous space model. Therefore, we use penalized M-splines. In simulation studies we demonstrate the performance of the estimators for all three model approaches. Furthermore, we apply the models to real-world data sets of European robins \textit{Erithacus rubecula} and ospreys \textit{Pandion haliaetus}.
We discuss how this study can be embedded in the framework of animal movement and the capture mark recapture/recovery methodology. It can be seen as a contribution and an extension to distance sampling, local stationary everyday movement and dispersal. We emphasize the importance of having a mathematically clearly formulated modeling framework for applied methods. Moreover, we comment on model assumptions and their limits. In the future, it would be appealing to extend this framework to the full annual cycle and carry-over effects.
Diese Dissertation untersucht Zusammenhänge der spieltheoretischen Begriffe des Nash- und Stackelberg-Gleichgewichts in Differenialspielen im N-Spieler-Fall. Weiterhin werden drei verschiedene Lösungskonzepte für das Finden von Gleichgewichten in 2-Spieler-Differentialspielen vorgestellt. Direkte Methoden aus der nichtlinearen Optimierung, der globalen Optimierung und der optimalen Steuerung werden verwendet, um Nash- und Stackelberg-Gleichgewichte in 2-Spieler-Differentialspielen zu finden. Anhand von Anwendungsbeispielen werden die Methoden getestet, analysiert und ausgewertet. Eine Erweiterung des Verfolgungsspiels von Isaacs auf Beschleunigungskomponenten wird betrachtet. Ein bisher unbekanntes Stackelberg-Gleichgewicht wird im Kapitalismusspiel nach Lancaster numerisch berechnet. Zuletzt wird ein Problem aus der Fischerei modelliert und anhand der eingeführten Methoden gelöst.
Twisted topological K-theory is a twisted version of topological K-theory in the sense of twisted generalized cohomology theories. It was pioneered by Donavan and Karoubi in 1970 where they used bundles of central simple graded algebras to model twists of K-theory. By the end of the last century physicists realised that D-brane charges in the field of string theory may be studied in terms of twisted K-theory. This rekindled interest in the topic lead to a wave of new models for the twists and new ways to realize the respective twisted K-theory groups. The state-of-the-art models today use bundles of projective unitary operators on separable Hilbert spaces as twists and K-groups are modeled by homotopy classes of sections of certain bundles of Fredholm operators. From a physics perspective these treatments are not optimal yet: they are intrinsically infinite-dimensional and these models do not immediately allow the inclusion of differential data like forms and connections.
In this thesis we introduce the 2-stack of k-algebra gerbes. Objects, 1-morphisms and 2-morphisms consist of finite-dimensional geometric data simultaneously generalizing bundle gerbes and bundles of central simple graded k-algebras for k either the field of real numbers or the field of complex numbers. We construct an explicit isomorphism from equivalence classes of k-algebra gerbes over a space X to the full set of twists of real K-theory and complex K-theory respectively. Further, we model relative twisted K-groups for compact spaces X and closed subspaces Y twisted by algebra gerbes. These groups are modeled directly in terms of 1-morphisms and 2-morphisms of algebra gerbes over X. We exhibit a relation to the K-groups introduced by Donavan and Karoubi and we translate their fundamental isomorphism -- an isomorphism relating K-groups over Thom spaces with K-groups twisted by Clifford algebra bundles -- to the new setting. With the help of this fundamental isomorphism we construct an explicit Thom isomorphism and explicit pushforward homomorphisms for smooth maps between compact manifolds, without requiring these maps to be K-oriented. Further -- in order to treat K-groups for non-torsion twists -- we implement a geometric cocycle model, inspired by a related geometric cycle model developed by Baum and Douglas for K-homology in 1982, and construct an assembly map for this model.