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This thesis aims at improving the current representation of adaptation in economic frameworks of climate change by a) accounting for the time-dependent evolution of the adaptive capacities of countries and b) quantifying unwelcome feedbacks of the adaptation process. In this context, it is proposed that economic assessments of climate change incorporate adaptation as a cyclic and phase-dependent process while devising their cost methodologies. A phase-dependent process acknowledges the existence of adaptation barriers while a cyclic process accounts for potential unwanted feedbacks of adaptation. By analyzing economic assessments against this framework, it is shown that dependencies between phases of adaptation and phases altogether are often disregarded. Furthermore, potential negative consequences associated with adaptation are rarely considered and adaptation is generally assumed to be unconstrained. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation is only acceptable in the context of high adaptive capacity. This concept was further investigated through a review of vulnerability assessments regarding their operation of the adaptive capacity component. It was found that adaptive capacity is mostly equated to proxies that reflect the knowledge, financial and livelihood capacities of the system under analysis. With this theoretical considerations in mind, a dynamic representation of adaptive capacity was elaborated at a country-level. The Human Development Index (HDI) was used as a proxy of the adaptive capacity of countries and its evolution in time extrapolated. The time required for countries to achieve developed world standards of human development was then estimated. The results indicate that between 2005 and 2020, half of the world population will live in countries with low adaptive capacity. This percentage is then progressively reduced to 15% in the year 2050, with marked regional differences. The time required for a country to achieve an appropriate level of development sets a clear constraint on when, and to what extent, the country can engage on climate change adaptation. This does not imply that adaptation will not take place before development occurs. Rather, it calls for adaptation options to be tailored in order to t the current and future adaptive capacities of countries. Obtaining higher levels of adaptive capacity is likely to be associated with negative consequences for the climatic system. The statistical relation between HDI and per-capita emissions of countries was established and future projections made. Between 2010 and 2050 approx. 300 Gt of CO2 are estimated to be associated with the increase of adaptive capacities of current developing countries. This value represents about 30% of the allowed CO2-budgets to restrict global temperatures to an increase of 2 degrees by 2100 compared to pre-industrial times - conditional to a 25% risk of failing to meet the target. For the case of sea-level rise, the modelling framework DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) was used in order to illustrate the drawbacks of a simplistic representation of adaptation. The results show that adaptation via the construction of protective infrastructure might be economically feasible for particular countries. For others, modeled results fail to provide a clear choice between adaptation or inaction. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation resulted in the valuation of costly protection options whose financial and knowledge requirements can be at odds with the capacities of some coastal countries - namely developing countries. Further, infrastructural protection as adaptive measure to prevent coastal damages can have the counter-productive effect of raising the amount and value of assets at risk. This is a direct result of DIVA disregarding the potential unwelcome feedbacks of adaptation itself. In conclusion, the full potential of economic assessments of climate adaptation is likely to remain unlocked as long as adaptation continues to be misrepresented. The methodologies discussed in this work provide a way forward to alleviate this deficiency in forthcoming assessments. For the case of sea-level rise, the modeling framework DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) was used in order to illustrate the drawbacks of a simplistic representation of adaptation. The results show that adaptation via the construction of protective infrastructure might be economically feasible for particular countries. For others, modeled results fail to provide a clear choice between adaptation or inaction. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation resulted in the valuation of costly protection options whose financial and knowledge requirements can be at odds with the capacities of some coastal countries - namely developing countries. Further, infrastructural protection as adaptive measure to prevent coastal damages can have the counter-productive effect of raising the amount and value of assets at risk. This is a direct result of DIVA disregarding the potential unwelcome feedbacks of adaptation itself. In conclusion, the full potential of economic assessments of climate adaptation is likely to remain unlocked as long as adaptation continues to be misrepresented. The methodologies discussed in this work provide a way forward to alleviate this deficiency in forthcoming assessments.
Although End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) is a disease of increasing epidemiological relevance very little is known about the cost of providing the respective dialysis services in Tanzania. This study analyses the cost of outpatient dialysis at Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH) in Tanzania in the year 2014 in order to address the question weather or not dialysis treatment should be a priority intervention in a poor resource country like Tanzania. Cost analyses were performed based on the provider’s perspective including only direct costs of dialysis treatment. Cost of drugs and consumables were obtained from the price list of Medical Stores Department in Tanzania. Overhead were collected from the respective departments and allocated to the final cost centres through step down approach. The results indicates that MNH performs on average 442 hemodialyses per month (34 patients, with three sessions per week) with a personnel placement of 20 nurses, four nephrologists, eight registrars, one nutritionist, two biomedical engineers, four health attendants and nine dialysis machines. The respective average unit cost per haemodialysis is 175.91 US$. Consequently, an average patient requiring three dialyses per week (i.e. 156 dialyses per year) will cause annual costs of 27,441.95 US$. The annual cost of dialysis is enormous for a least developed country like Tanzania where resources and technology are rather limited. Infectious diseases (such as malaria and tuberculosis) are the major health problems. Therefore, from the economic point of view, it seems rational to allocate health care budgets towards diseases that are curable, have higher cost- effectiveness and cater for the majority of the population. However, before a final decision on allocation of budget towards dialysis is made, all efforts that could improve technical efficiency and reduce the costs of materials in Tanzania must be invested. For instance, reducing the nursing time per dialysis.