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Background
Approaching epidemiological data with flexible machine learning algorithms is of great value for understanding disease-specific association patterns. However, it can be difficult to correctly extract and understand those patterns due to the lack of model interpretability.
Method
We here propose a machine learning workflow that combines random forests with Bayesian network surrogate models to allow for a deeper level of interpretation of complex association patterns. We first evaluate the proposed workflow on synthetic data. We then apply it to data from the large population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). Based on this combination, we discover and interpret broad patterns of individual serum TSH concentrations, an important marker of thyroid functionality.
Results
Evaluations using simulated data show that feature associations can be correctly recovered by combining random forests and Bayesian networks. The presented model achieves predictive accuracy that is similar to state-of-the-art models (root mean square error of 0.66, mean absolute error of 0.55, coefficient of determination of R2 = 0.15). We identify 62 relevant features from the final random forest model, ranging from general health variables over dietary and genetic factors to physiological, hematological and hemostasis parameters. The Bayesian network model is used to put these features into context and make the black-box random forest model more understandable.
Conclusion
We demonstrate that the combination of random forest and Bayesian network analysis is helpful to reveal and interpret broad association patterns of individual TSH concentrations. The discovered patterns are in line with state-of-the-art literature. They may be useful for future thyroid research and improved dosing of therapeutics.
Background. The German maternity guidelines require regular medical checkup (MC) during pregnancy as a measure of prevention. Socioeconomic factors such as education, profession, income and origin, but also age and parity may influence the preventive and health behavior of pregnant women. The aim was to investigate the influence of these factors on the participation rate in MC of pregnant women. Method. The current analysis is based on the prospective population-based birth cohort study Survey of Neonates in Pomerania, which was conducted in Western Pomerania, Germany. The data of 4092 pregnant women from 2004 to 2008 were analyzed regarding the antenatal care and health behavior. Up to 12 MC were regularly offered; participation in 10 MC is defined as standard screening according to maternity guidelines. Results. Women participated in the first preventive MC on average in the 10th (±3.8 SD) week of pregnancy. 1343 (34.2%) women participated in standard screening and 2039 (51.9%) took a screening above standard. 547 (13.92%) women participated in less than the 10 standard MCs. In addition, about one-third of the pregnancies investigated in this study were unplanned. Bivariate analyses showed an association between better antenatal care behavior and higher maternal age, stabile partnerships and mother born in Germany, p < 0.05. On the contrary antenatal care below standard were more often found by women with unplanned pregnancies, less educational women and women with lower equivalent income, p < 0.001. Health behaviors also influenced antenatal care. Whereas the risk of antenatal care below standard increased by smoking during pregnancy (RRR 1.64; 95% CI 1.25, 2.14) and alcohol consumption (RRR 1.31; 95% CI 1.01, 1.69), supplementation intake was associated with decreased risk (iodine—RRR 0.66; 95% CI 0.53, 0.81; folic acid—RRR 0.56; 95% CI 0.44, 0.72). The health behavior of pregnant women also differs according to their social status. Higher maternal income was negatively correlated with smoking during pregnancy (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.15, 0.24), but positively associated with alcohol consumption during pregnancy (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.15, 1.48) and lower pre-pregnancy BMI (Coef. = 0.083, p < 0.001). Lower maternal education was positively correlated with smoking during pregnancy (OR 59.0; 95% CI 28.68, 121.23). Conclusions. Prenatal care according to maternity guidelines is well established with a high participation rate in MC during pregnancy of more than 85%. However, targeted preventive measures may address younger age, socioeconomic status and health-damaging behaviors (smoking, drinking) of the pregnant women because these factors were associated with antenatal care below standard.
Abstract
Objectives
To examine the association between third molars and orofacial pain. We hypothesized that impacted third molars are a cause of orofacial pain.
Methods
Magnetic resonance images of 1808 participants from two population‐based cohorts from Northeastern Germany were analysed to define the status of third molars according to the Pell and Gregory classification. A self‐reported questionnaire and a clinical dental examination were used to detect chronic and acute complaints of orofacial pain, masticatory muscle pain, migraine and other types of headache. Logistic regression models were used to analyse the associations between third molar status and orofacial pain.
Results
Individuals with impacted third molars in the maxilla had a higher chance of chronic orofacial pain than those with erupted third molars (odds ratio 2.19; 95% CI 1.19‐4.02). No such association was detected for third molars in the lower jaw. Third molars were not associated with masticatory muscle pain, migraine or other types of headache.
Conclusions
Impacted maxillary third molars might be a cause of chronic orofacial pain. Thus, physicians should consider the eruption/impaction status of third molars in their decision‐making process when treating patients who complain of orofacial pain.
Objective
Maternal pre-pregnancy underweight, overweight and obesity might increase the risk for worse short- and long-term outcome in the offspring. There is a need for further study into the relationship between maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and the combined outcome of physical development, state of health and social behavior in children. Question: Is maternal pre-pregnancy BMI associated with the child outcome in terms of physical development, state of health and social behavior (school and leisure time behavior) at the age of 9 to 15 years?
Methods
In the population-based birth cohort study Survey of Neonates in Pomerania (SNIP) children at the age 9–15 years and their families were re-examined by questionnaire-based follow-up. 5725 mother–child pairs were invited to SNiP-follow-up. This analysis is based on the recall fraction of 24.1% (n = 1379). Based on the maternal pre-pregnancy BMI (ppBMI), 4 groups were formed: underweight (ppBMI < 19 kg/m2, n = 117), normal weight (ppBMI 19–24.99 kg/m2, n = 913, reference), overweight (ppBMI 25–30 kg). /m2, n = 237) and obesity (ppBMI > 30 kg/m2, n = 109).
Results
In the multiple regression model, the BMI-z-score for children of mothers in the underweight group was −0.50 lower, and 0.50/1.07 higher in the overweight/obese group (p < 0.001) compared to reference at median age of 12 years. No differences were found in children of underweight mothers with regard to social behavior (interaction with friends and family), school and sports performance (coded from “very good” to “poor”), other leisure activities (watching television, using mobile phones, gaming), and health (occurrence of illnesses) compared to children of normal weight mothers. In contrast, maternal pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity were associated with lower school and sports performance, and higher screen time (smart phone, gaming, television) compared to children of normal weight mothers.
Conclusion
Maternal pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity but not underweight was negatively associated with school performance and leisure time behavior in the offspring at 9–15 years of age.
Background: Abdominal obesity is a major driver for adverse medical conditions. While an interaction between adipose tissue and thyroid function is thought to exist, to our knowledge, no study has examined the effect of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) on visceral adipose tissue (VAT) in a population-based context. Objective: We determined an association between serum TSH levels and VAT. Methods: A sample of 1,021 female and 956 male adults aged 20-79 years was drawn from registry offices in the cross-sectional, population-based Study of Health in Pomerania Trend (SHIP Trend) in Northeast Germany from 2008 to 2012. Our main exposure was serum TSH levels. Our main outcome was VAT measured using magnetic resonance imaging. The possibly mediating role of leptin on the TSH-VAT association was also assessed. Results: A total of 1,719 participants (87.9%) had serum TSH levels within the reference range. The mean volume of VAT was 5.33 liters for men and 2.83 liters for women. No association between TSH and VAT (β = 0.06, 95% CI: -0.02, 0.14) was observed, and there were no differences detected between sexes. VAT was strongly associated with leptin with a greater effect in women than in men. Leptin was strongly associated with TSH. Conclusions: No association between TSH and VAT was observed. Other biomarkers such as leptin may play a role in the relationship between thyroid function and metabolic risk.
The associations of thyroid function parameters with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and hepatic iron overload are not entirely clear. We have cross-sectionally investigated these associations among 2734 participants of two population-based cross-sectional studies of the Study of Health in Pomerania. Serum levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free tri-iodothyronine (fT3), and free thyroxine (fT4) levels were measured. Liver fat content (by proton-density fat fraction) as well as hepatic iron content (by transverse relaxation rate; R2*) were assessed by quantitative MRI. Thyroid function parameters were associated with hepatic fat and iron contents by median and logistic regression models adjusted for confounding. There were no associations between serum TSH levels and liver fat content, NAFLD, or hepatic iron overload. Serum fT4 levels were inversely associated with liver fat content, NAFLD, hepatic iron contents, and hepatic iron overload. Serum fT3 levels as well as the fT3 to fT4 ratio were positively associated with hepatic fat, NAFLD, hepatic iron contents, but not with hepatic iron overload. Associations between fT3 levels and liver fat content were strongest in obese individuals, in which we also observed an inverse association between TSH levels and NAFLD. These findings might be the result of a higher conversion of fT4 to the biologically active form fT3. Our results suggest that a subclinical hyperthyroid state may be associated with NAFLD, particularly in obese individuals. Furthermore, thyroid hormone levels seem to be more strongly associated with increased liver fat content compared to hepatic iron content.
Background: The aim of our study was to investigate associations of spleen volume with blood count markers and lipid profile in the general population.
Materials & methods: Cross-sectional data from 1,106 individuals aged 30–90 years from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-START-2) were analyzed. Blood count markers included red blood cell (RBC) counts, hemoglobin, platelet count, and white blood cell (WBC) counts. Lipid profile included total-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) as well as triglycerides. Linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, body height, and weight were used to associate standardized spleen volume with blood counts and lipid profile markers.
Results: Spleen volume was positively associated with RBC (β = 0.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03 to 0.08) and hemoglobin (β = 0.05; 95% CI = 0.01 to 0.09) but inversely with platelet count (β = −16.3; 95% CI = –20.5 to −12.1) and WBC (β = −0.25; 95% CI = −0.37 to −0.14). Furthermore, spleen volume showed inverse associations with total cholesterol (β = −0.17; 95% CI = −0.24 to −0.09), HDL-C (β = −0.08; 95% CI = −0.10 to −0.05), and LDL-C (β = −0.12; 95% CI = −0.17 to −0.06). There was no significant association of spleen volume with triglycerides.
Conclusion: Our study showed that the spleen volume is associated with markers of the blood count and lipid profile in the general population.
Body surface scan anthropometrics are related to cardiorespiratory fitness in the general population
(2022)
The assessment of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is an important tool for prognosis evaluation of cardiovascular events. The gold standard to measure CRF is cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) to determine peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak). However, CPET is not only time consuming but also expensive and is therefore not widely applicable in daily practice. The aim of our study was to analyze, whether and which anthropometric markers derived from a 3D body scanner were related to VO2peak in a general population-based study. We analyzed data (SHIP-START-3) from 3D body scanner and CPET of 1035 subjects (529 women; 51.1%, age range 36–93). A total of 164 anthropometric markers were detected with the 3D body scanner VITUS Smart XXL using the software AnthroScan Professional. Anthropometric measurements were standardized and associated with CRF by sex-stratified linear regression models adjusted for age and height. Anthropometric markers were ranked according to the − log- p values derived from these regression models. In men a greater left and right thigh-knee-ratio, a longer forearm-fingertip length, a greater left thigh circumference and greater left upper arm circumference were most strongly associated with a higher VO2peak. In women a greater left and right thigh circumference, left calf circumference, thigh thickness and right calf circumference were most strongly associated with a higher VO2peak. The detected VO2peak-related anthropometric markers could be helpful in assessing CRF in clinical routine. Commonly used anthropometric markers, e.g. waist and hip circumference, were not among the markers associated with VO2peak.
Abstract
Introduction
Transabdominal ultrasound (US) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are commonly used for the examination of the pancreas in clinical routine. We therefore were interested in the concordance of these two imaging methods for the size measurement of the pancreas and how age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) affect the organ size.
Methods
A total of 342 participants from the Study of Health in Pomerania underwent whole‐body MRI and transabdominal US on the same day, and the diameter of the pancreatic head, body, and tail were measured. The agreement between US and MRI measurements was assessed by Bland and Altman plots. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to compare observers. A multivariable regression model was applied using the independent variables age, gender, and body mass index.
Results
Compared to MRI, abdominal US returned smaller values for each segment of the pancreas, with a high level of inconsistency between these two methods. The mean difference was 0.39, 0.18, and 0.54 cm for the head, body, and tail, respectively. A high interobserver variability was detected for US. Multivariable analysis showed that pancreatic size in all three segments increased with BMI in both genders whereas pancreatic head and tail size decreased with age, an effect more marked in women.
Conclusions
Agreement of pancreatic size measurements is poor between US and MRI. These limitations should be considered when evaluating morphologic features for pathologic conditions or setting limits of normal size. Adjustments for BMI, gender, and age may also be warranted.