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This thesis aims at improving the current representation of adaptation in economic frameworks of climate change by a) accounting for the time-dependent evolution of the adaptive capacities of countries and b) quantifying unwelcome feedbacks of the adaptation process. In this context, it is proposed that economic assessments of climate change incorporate adaptation as a cyclic and phase-dependent process while devising their cost methodologies. A phase-dependent process acknowledges the existence of adaptation barriers while a cyclic process accounts for potential unwanted feedbacks of adaptation. By analyzing economic assessments against this framework, it is shown that dependencies between phases of adaptation and phases altogether are often disregarded. Furthermore, potential negative consequences associated with adaptation are rarely considered and adaptation is generally assumed to be unconstrained. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation is only acceptable in the context of high adaptive capacity. This concept was further investigated through a review of vulnerability assessments regarding their operation of the adaptive capacity component. It was found that adaptive capacity is mostly equated to proxies that reflect the knowledge, financial and livelihood capacities of the system under analysis. With this theoretical considerations in mind, a dynamic representation of adaptive capacity was elaborated at a country-level. The Human Development Index (HDI) was used as a proxy of the adaptive capacity of countries and its evolution in time extrapolated. The time required for countries to achieve developed world standards of human development was then estimated. The results indicate that between 2005 and 2020, half of the world population will live in countries with low adaptive capacity. This percentage is then progressively reduced to 15% in the year 2050, with marked regional differences. The time required for a country to achieve an appropriate level of development sets a clear constraint on when, and to what extent, the country can engage on climate change adaptation. This does not imply that adaptation will not take place before development occurs. Rather, it calls for adaptation options to be tailored in order to t the current and future adaptive capacities of countries. Obtaining higher levels of adaptive capacity is likely to be associated with negative consequences for the climatic system. The statistical relation between HDI and per-capita emissions of countries was established and future projections made. Between 2010 and 2050 approx. 300 Gt of CO2 are estimated to be associated with the increase of adaptive capacities of current developing countries. This value represents about 30% of the allowed CO2-budgets to restrict global temperatures to an increase of 2 degrees by 2100 compared to pre-industrial times - conditional to a 25% risk of failing to meet the target. For the case of sea-level rise, the modelling framework DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) was used in order to illustrate the drawbacks of a simplistic representation of adaptation. The results show that adaptation via the construction of protective infrastructure might be economically feasible for particular countries. For others, modeled results fail to provide a clear choice between adaptation or inaction. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation resulted in the valuation of costly protection options whose financial and knowledge requirements can be at odds with the capacities of some coastal countries - namely developing countries. Further, infrastructural protection as adaptive measure to prevent coastal damages can have the counter-productive effect of raising the amount and value of assets at risk. This is a direct result of DIVA disregarding the potential unwelcome feedbacks of adaptation itself. In conclusion, the full potential of economic assessments of climate adaptation is likely to remain unlocked as long as adaptation continues to be misrepresented. The methodologies discussed in this work provide a way forward to alleviate this deficiency in forthcoming assessments. For the case of sea-level rise, the modeling framework DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) was used in order to illustrate the drawbacks of a simplistic representation of adaptation. The results show that adaptation via the construction of protective infrastructure might be economically feasible for particular countries. For others, modeled results fail to provide a clear choice between adaptation or inaction. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation resulted in the valuation of costly protection options whose financial and knowledge requirements can be at odds with the capacities of some coastal countries - namely developing countries. Further, infrastructural protection as adaptive measure to prevent coastal damages can have the counter-productive effect of raising the amount and value of assets at risk. This is a direct result of DIVA disregarding the potential unwelcome feedbacks of adaptation itself. In conclusion, the full potential of economic assessments of climate adaptation is likely to remain unlocked as long as adaptation continues to be misrepresented. The methodologies discussed in this work provide a way forward to alleviate this deficiency in forthcoming assessments.
Increasing environmental changes primarily due to anthropogenic impacts, are affecting organisms all over the planet. In general, scientists distinguish between three different ways in which organisms can respond to environmental changes in their habitat: extinction, dispersal and adaptation. An example of organisms which are highly adaptable and can easily cope with new and changing environments are invasive species which are able to colonize new habitats with only few individuals. To successfully survive in their new environment, invasive species adapt fast to novel abiotic and biotic parameters, such as different temperature regimes. Phenotypic plasticity which enables organisms to quickly modify their phenotype to new environmental conditions, explains the success in adaptation of invasive species.
While underlying mechanisms of phenotypic plasticity are not fully understood, one possible “motor” of phenotypic plasticity is epigenetics. Especially DNA methylation could explain the fast changes of the organism’s phenotype due to plasticity when experiencing changing environments, as invasive species do. DNA methylation could even contribute to the adaptation of invasive species via phenotypic plasticity, especially with clonally reproducing species. Methods such as common garden experiments with clonally reproducing species are a useful tool to differentiate between phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation because the confusing effects of genetic variation are lowered in clonally reproducing species.
Our overall goal was to evaluate the genetic adaptive potential of New Zealand mud snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) populations from Europe since they went through an extreme bottleneck after colonizing Europe only 180-360 generations ago. Seemingly, two different clonal lineages colonized Europe because two 16 s rRNA and cytochrome b haplotypes were found across different European countries, haplotypes t and z. The NZMS is a highly successful invasive species that is nowadays nearly globally distributed. The shells of the NZMS show a habitat-dependent high variability and are a fitness-relevant trait. The high variability in shell morphology is due to both genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity. To disentangle genetic from environmental effects on the shell morphology NZMS, we conducted a common garden experiment. We kept asexually reproducing females from eleven European populations in climate cabinets with three different temperatures to produce offspring. We compared shell size and shape across three generations using the geometric morphometrics approach. Furthermore, we estimated reaction norms, maternal effects, broad-sense heritability, the coefficient of genetic variation (CVA) and evolvability (IA) in shell size and shape across different temperature conditions. Additionally, we investigated the reproductive rate of the parental generation.
Results showed that the shell morphology of the parental generation differed across populations. In contrast, the shell morphology of offspring generations became more similar. The reaction norms of the F1 generation were rather variable across the three temperatures. However, we were able to observe a haplotype-dependent pattern across the reaction norms suggesting a restricted genetic differentiation among NZMS in Europe. We detected high heritability values in size indicating a high genetic influence. Heritability values for shape were lower than in size. Generally, heritability varied slightly depending on temperature. Size seemed to have a higher evolvability than shape. However, the values of all our calculations were very low which indicates that the European NZMS populations are genetically diminished. The reproductive rate of the parental generation was rather haplotype than temperature dependent. In summary, we were able to display that the NZMS is capable to plastically adapt its shell morphology to different temperatures showing significant differences between the two haplotypes. Nevertheless, the low evolvability values indicate that little genetic variation has formed since the arrival of the NZMS in Europe and therefore, European NZMS seem to have a reduced ability to react to selection.
These results implied that phenotypic plasticity is important for the adaptation to different environmental conditions in the NZMS and maybe other molluscan species. Since classical experimental approaches can only describe the resulting phenotypes, we also intended to shed more light on the mechanistic side of environmentally induced phenotypic modifications using DNA methylation analysis. Although molluscs represent one of the most diverse taxa within the metazoan and are found in many different habitats, our knowledge of the DNA methylation in molluscs is scarce. Therefore, we aimed at deepening and summarizing our understanding about DNA methylation in molluscs. Publicly available molluscan genomic and transcriptomic data of all eight mollusc classes was downloaded to search for DNA methyltransferases (DNMTs 1-3) responsible for DNA methylation. Additionally, we estimated the normalized CpG dinucleotide content (CpG o/e) indicating the presence/absence and the frequency of DNA methylation in the genome. The CpG o/e ratio refers to the level of DNA methylation in the genome. Based on the sensitivity of methylated cytosines to mutate into thymine residues, species having a high germline methylation in genomic regions over evolutionary time, also have a lower CpG content, which is called CpG depletion. In contrary, species with a limited germline methylation in genomic regions over evolutionary time, show a higher CpG content and lack CpG depletion. The presence or absence of CpG depletion can be calculated with the CpG o/e ratio. Ultimately, the goal of our analyses was to gain insight into the evolution of methylation in molluscs.
We detected DNMTs in all eight mollusc classes and in most of the species. It is therefore plausible that the last common ancestor of molluscs has already had the enzymatic machinery which is needed for DNA methylation. However, various species did not possess the complete DNMT toolkit indicating evolutionary modification in DNA methylation. In general, we found a wide distribution of the bimodal CpG o/e pattern in six mollusc classes, resulting from CpG depletion. The genes in these groups seem to be divided into genes with a high degree of methylation and genes with a lower degree of methylation. This implies that DNA methylation seems to be rather common in molluscs. Species of Solenogastres and Monoplacophora were not or only sparsely methylated. It seems that those mollusc groups have undergone a reduction in DNA methylation. We hope that our investigations will demonstrate the lacking knowledge in epigenetics of molluscs and encourage scientist to execute and continue genetic studies on molluscs.
Unstable environments and habitats changing due to climate change force individuals to either respond by genetic adaptation, phenotypic plasticity or by dispersal to suitable environments. Theodoxus fluviatilis (Linneaus, 1758) is a good study organisms when researching phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation as it naturally appears in freshwater (FW) as well as brackish water (BW) and thus inhabits a wide range of environmental salinities (0-18‰). It is a euryhaline snail that can be found in shallow waters with stony ground or on Fucus spp. and has formed regional subgroups. The brackish water and the freshwater subgroups are spatially separated and the species cannot be found in areas inbetween, e.g. estuaries.
The species shows great variability in shell patterning and shell size and there is still debate whether the subgroups are distinguishable by these traits or not. The mitochdrial RNA marker cytochrome c subunit I did not show differences between the subgroups indicating that they must be closely related, but salinity tolerance has been observed to be higher in BW snails. This might be caused by the different protein expression patterns and osmolyte accumulation (measured as ninhydrin-positive substances) observed in this species in previous studies. The exact mechanisms regulating protein expression and osmolyte accumulation, however, are not fully understood yet.
Data collected for this thesis shows differences in shell size and suggests a less strict grouping of FW and BW individuals as shell sizes of one FW site are more similar to BW individuals than the other FW ones. A better salinity tolerance towards high salinities and a higher physiological salinity limit of BW snails was confirmed and extended by demonstrating an expanded tolerance range through slow acclimation to challenging salinities in snails from both subgroups. This was achieved by a shift in the slope of their reaction norms that was much more pronounced in BW snails than FW ones. S3 individuals showed a shift similar to that of BW individuals. The data for the salinity tolerance indicates that the underlying mechanism for these tolerances are a combination of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation. Despite an acclimation and shift in the slope of the reaction norms and therefore an increased tolerance towards high salinities (plasticity) FW individuals from two collection sites were not able to cope with salinities as high as BW individuals (local adaptation). The general ability to mobilise free amino acids (FAA) as organic osmolytes was not the reason for this tolerance difference. Individuals from BW and FW sites were capable of accumulating quantities of FAAs equally well. Proline, alanine and urea were the most important components of the accumulated cocktail of organic osmolytes. Even though the total amount of FAAs accumulated under hyperosmotic conditions was the same in both subgroups, there were differences in the metabolic pathways involved in osmolyte accumulation in the foot muscle. The data indicates that the hydrolysis of storage proteins and the synthesis of proline and alanine are the main processes to avoid detrimental body volume shrinkage in T. fluviatilis. While FW individuals seemed to rely on the degradation of proteins and synthesis of alanine, BW individuals depended on newly synthesising proline and alanine and accumulating urea as a side product of transamination. The accumulation of urea is a new finding in aquatic living snails and has not been reported as a mechanism to avoid cell volume shrinkage in these animals.
Differing protein expression patterns were observed under control conditions across all collection sites. 9 spots showed volume changes in BW snails opposite to those of FW snails from collection sites S1 and S2. For 6 of those spots, S3 individuals showed patterns similar to those of BW individuals and for the remaining 3 they showed patterns similar to those of FW animals. The patterns observed when exposing snails to hypo- or hyperosmotic stress were not conclusive in relation to pinpointing individual spots that show the same pattern in all collection sites, but revealed the heterogeneity of protein expression in snails from the different collection sites and in the process of osmoregulation. It also showed the general tendency of protein reduction when snails where under osmotic stress of either kind (hypo- or hyperosmotic), which supports the hypothesis of storage protein degradation.
The investigation of an ANP-receptor showed two variations of the encoding sequence expressed in T. fluviatilis. S3 individuals as well as BW individuals were found to express one type, while FW individuals, with the exception of one sample expressed the other type. This showed that the FW subgroup of T. fluviatilis seems to be more heterogeneous than the BW subgroup, but also raises the question of the dispersal history of this species. The collected data indicates that T. fluviatilis individuals are firstly capable of surviving the acidity of a duck's gizzard and secondly can tolerate acute salinity changes to 16‰ when introduced into a new environment. Hence, if snails from the FW were to be transported to waters with a salinity of up to 16‰ by man, bird, drifting plants or some other means of transport, they would most likely survive and possibly be able to thrive and spread.
Climate change has strongly affected mountain forests through an increasing intensity and frequency of disturbances and forest dieback in recent decades. However, given the strong relevance of forest dieback and potential impacts on forest stakeholders and local inhabitants, it is surprising that this research field is seldom investigated to date. Therefore, this study deals with the perception of climate change-related consequences as well as possible silvicultural adaptation strategies for the Bavarian Forest. Since it can be assumed that various forest ecosystem services will be increasingly in demand in the future, participation by all stakeholders is essential. Therefore, a sequential, mixed-method approach (qualitative and quantitative survey) allows developing concrete guidelines and strategies for adaptive management, in which the diverse social demands on forests can be adequately taken into account.