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Spatial variation in survival has individual fitness consequences and influences population dynamics. It proximately and ultimately impacts space use including migratory connectivity. Therefore, knowing spatial patterns of survival is crucial to understand demography of migrating animals. Extracting information on survival and space use from observation data, in particular dead recovery data, requires explicitly identifying the observation process. The main aim of this work is to establish a modeling framework which allows estimating spatial variation in survival, migratory connectivity and observation probability using dead recovery data. We provide some biological background on survival and migration and a short methodological overview of how similar situations are modeled in literature.
Afterwards, we provide REML-like estimators for discrete space and show identifiability of all three parameters using the characteristics of the multinomial distribution. Moreover, we formulate a model in continuous space using mixed binomial point processes. The continuous model assumes a constant recovery probability over space. To drop this strict assumption, we develop an optimization procedure combining the discrete and continuous space model. Therefore, we use penalized M-splines. In simulation studies we demonstrate the performance of the estimators for all three model approaches. Furthermore, we apply the models to real-world data sets of European robins \textit{Erithacus rubecula} and ospreys \textit{Pandion haliaetus}.
We discuss how this study can be embedded in the framework of animal movement and the capture mark recapture/recovery methodology. It can be seen as a contribution and an extension to distance sampling, local stationary everyday movement and dispersal. We emphasize the importance of having a mathematically clearly formulated modeling framework for applied methods. Moreover, we comment on model assumptions and their limits. In the future, it would be appealing to extend this framework to the full annual cycle and carry-over effects.