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For the goal of individualized medicine, it is critical to have clinical phenotypes at hand which represent the individual pathophysiology. However, for most of the utilized phenotypes, two individuals with the same phenotype assignment may differ strongly in their underlying biological traits. In this paper, we propose a definition for individualization and a corresponding statistical operationalization, delivering thereby a statistical framework in which the usefulness of a variable in the meaningful differentiation of individuals with the same phenotype can be assessed. Based on this framework, we develop a statistical workflow to derive individualized phenotypes, demonstrating that under specific statistical constraints the prediction error of prediction scores contains information about hidden biological traits not represented in the modeled phenotype of interest, allowing thereby internal differentiation of individuals with the same assigned phenotypic manifestation. We applied our procedure to data of the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania to construct a refined definition of obesity, demonstrating the utility of the definition in prospective survival analyses. Summarizing, we propose a framework for the individualization of phenotypes aiding personalized medicine by shifting the focus in the assessment of prediction models from the model fit to the informational content of the prediction error.
Periodontitis is one of the most prevalent oral diseases worldwide and is caused by multifactorial interactions between host and oral bacteria. Altered cellular metabolism of host and microbes releases a number of intermediary end products known as metabolites. There is an increasing interest in identifying metabolites from oral fluids such as saliva to widen the understanding of the complex pathogenesis of periodontitis. It is believed that some metabolites might serve as indicators toward early detection and screening of periodontitis and perhaps even for monitoring its prognosis in the future. Because contemporary periodontal screening methods are deficient, there is an urgent need for novel approaches in periodontal screening procedures. To this end, we associated oral parameters (clinical attachment level, periodontal probing depth, supragingival plaque, supragingival calculus, number of missing teeth, and removable denture) with a large set of salivary metabolites (n = 284) obtained by mass spectrometry among a subsample (n = 909) of nondiabetic participants from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-Trend-0). Linear regression analyses were performed in age-stratified groups and adjusted for potential confounders. A multifaceted image of associated metabolites (n = 107) was revealed with considerable differences according to age groups. In the young (20 to 39 y) and middle-aged (40 to 59 y) groups, metabolites were predominantly associated with periodontal variables, whereas among the older subjects (≥60 y), tooth loss was strongly associated with metabolite levels. Metabolites associated with periodontal variables were clearly linked to tissue destruction, host defense mechanisms, and bacterial metabolism. Across all age groups, the bacterial metabolite phenylacetate was significantly associated with periodontal variables. Our results revealed alterations of the salivary metabolome in association with age and oral health status. Among our comprehensive panel of metabolites, periodontitis was significantly associated with the bacterial metabolite phenylacetate, a promising substance for further biomarker research.