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Abstract
This paper focuses on the expectation formation process of professional forecasters by relying on survey data on forecasts regarding gross domestic product growth, consumer price index inflation and 3‐month interest rates for a broad set of countries. We examine the interrelation between macroeconomic forecasts and also the impact of uncertainty on forecasts by allowing for cross‐country interdependencies and time variation in the coefficients. We find that professional forecasts are often in line with the Taylor rule and identify significant expectation spillovers from monetary policy in the USA.
Abstract
This article takes a novel look at the relationship between government activity, partisan preferences and varieties of capitalism. Evidence from panel regressions for 25 EU countries from 1990 to 2014 suggests that there are major divides among European countries in terms of the drivers of government activity, that is, government spending and government regulation. The European divide appears to be even more pronounced between liberal and coordinated economic systems than between the classical geographical divide of east and west, which is typically used in most contributions. While both divides apply to the determinants of government activity in general, a reversal of the classical partisan effect for the east is to be found only in specific cases and, is most likely in government spending in liberal eastern countries.
Purpose: To assess the comparative efficacy and the long-term cost-utility of alternative minimally invasive glaucoma surgeries (MIGSs) when combined with cataract surgery in patients with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG).
Methods: Treatment effects, as measured by the 1-year reduction in intraocular pressure (IOP), were estimated with an adjusted indirect treatment comparison. Evidence from randomized clinical trials was identified for four different MIGS methods. A disease-transition model was developed by capturing clinically relevant POAG stages and the expected natural disease evolution. Outcomes of the disease-transition model were the comparative utility [quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)], cost and cost-utility of included strategies in a lifetime horizon.
Results: Estimated 1-year IOP reductions were: cataract surgery - 2.05 mmHg (95% CI - 3.38; - 0.72), one trabecular micro-bypass stent - 3.15 mmHg (95% CI - 5.66; - 0.64), two trabecular micro-bypass stents - 4.85 mmHg (95% CI - 7.71; - 1.99) and intracanalicular scaffold - 2.25 mmHg (95% CI - 4.87; 0.37). Discounted outcomes from the disease-transition model appraised the strategy of two trabecular micro-bypass stents with cataract surgery in the moderate POAG stage as the one providing the greatest added value, with 10,955€ per additional QALY. Improved outcomes were seen when assessing MIGS in the moderate POAG stage.
Conclusions: When indirectly comparing alternative MIGS methods combined with cataract surgery, the option of two trabecular micro-bypass stents showed both a superior efficacy and long-term cost-utility from a German perspective. Moreover, outcomes of the disease-transition model suggest POAG patients to beneficiate the most from an earlier intervention in the moderate stage contrary to waiting until an advanced disease is present.