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Prediction of high caries increment in adults – a 5-year longitudinal study from North-East Germany
(2013)
The aim of this study is to develop an easily applicable prediction model for high coronal caries increment in adults (20-79 years) from a representative sample (N=2,565) to identify a high risk-group for specific caries prevention. The data from SHIP-0 (1997-2001) and the 5-year follow-up SHIP-1 (2002-2006) is used for analyses. The oral health examination was conducted according to WHO criteria [1997]. The drop-out analysis reveals that drop-outs are significantly older, have a lower school education, are more frequently current smokers, but have a better self-perception of their teeth. The majority of the study-population (76%) has caries incidence in this 5-year period. Caries increment shows a polarized distribution, as the high caries increment group (≥9 surfaces in half-mouth, 11.4% of the sample) comprise 40% of the total increment. The variables male gender, age ≥40 years, lower school education or lower income, current smoking, pain-associated dental visit, baseline caries experience and a non-satisfying self-perception of teeth show a statistically significant influence on high caries increment. The prediction model allows a fair to good prediction on an epidemiological level for men (AUC=0.75). The factors smoking, school education and pain-associated visit only have a significant impact on the prediction of high caries increment in men. Due to very high caries prevalence and increment a population-based prevention in adults should be optimized first, before risk-group specific preventive programmes might be implemented.