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Planning Modes for Major Transportation Infrastructure Projects (MTIPs): Comparing China and Germany
(2018)
The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is projected for the 21st century is predicted to have severe impacts on ecosystems and on the provision of ecosystem services. With respect to the longevity of trees, forestry in particular has to adapt now to future climate change. This requires profound multidisciplinary knowledge on the direct and indirect climate sensitivity of forest ecosystems on various spatial scales. Predictions on growth declines due to increasing drought exposition during climate change are widely recognized for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), which is the major forest tree in European temperate deciduous forests. However, research from other continents or other biomes has shown that winter climate change may also affect forest growth dynamics due to declining snow cover and increased soil cooling. So far, this winter cold sensitivity is largely unexplored in Europe. Thus, particularly focussing on forest growth dynamics and winter cold sensitivity, the goal of this PhD-project was to explore how climate sensitivity of forest ecosystems differs regionally. By doing so, the project aimed to deliver insights about possibilities and limits of upscaling regional knowledge to a global understanding of climate sensitivity. To achieve these goals, this PhD-project integrated five studies (Manuscripts 1–5) that investigated the climate sensitivity of biogeochemical cycles, plant species composition in forests, and forest growth dynamics across spatial scales. In particular, a large-scale gradient-design field experiment simulated the influence of winter climate change on forest ecosystems by snow cover and soil temperature manipulations (Manuscript 1). This study indicated that soil cooling and decreased root nutrient uptake may indirectly reduce growth of adult forest trees. Moreover, this study indicated uniform ecological sensitivity to soil temperature changes across sites along a large winter temperature gradient (ΔT = 4 K across 500 km), irrespective of the site-specific history of snow cover conditions, which motivates upscaling from local winter climate change studies to the regional scale. Although regional climate drives growth of adult forest trees, local factors, such as site-specific edaphic conditions, might control plants in the forest understory. This assumption was tested by mapping the forest understory composition along the same winter temperature gradient as introduced above (Manuscript 2). Across sites, this study found that edaphic conditions explained the spatial turnover in the forest understory composition more than climate, which might moderate direct climate change impacts on the forest understory composition. However, edaphic conditions, forest structure, and climate are linked by triangular interactions. Thus, climate change might still indirectly affect the forest vegetation dynamics. Moreover, a dendroecological study focussed on the same winter temperature gradient from central to cold-marginal beech populations as above in order to identify gradual changes in summer drought and winter cold sensitivity in tree growth (Manuscript 3). Towards the cold distribution margin, the influence of drought on tree growth gradually decreased, while growth reductions were increasingly related to winter cold due to harsher winter climate. By a large-scale dendroecological network study assessed the relationship of growth dynamics to climate and reproductive effort in beech forests across Europe (Manuscript 4). Indeed, this study found the general pattern across the distribution range of beech that high temperature controlled growth indirectly via resource allocation to reproduction. However, the strong, direct drought signal that could be generally detected from dry-marginal to central populations vanished towards the cold-marginal populations, where the more focussed study of Manuscript 3 identified a stronger relationship of tree growth to winter cold. Further extending the scope of this PhD-thesis to global scales, litter decomposition rates were assessed across biomes (Manuscript 5). This study found a robust relationship between climate and decomposition rates, but it also demonstrated large within-biome variability on a local scale. These local scale differences might depend on habitat conditions that, in turn, could be modulated by climate change, which calls for a better exploration of indirect climate sensitivity. In conclusion, this PhD-thesis highlighted that multidisciplinary research can advance the understanding of ecological interactions in forest ecosystems under changing climate scenarios. In this PhD-project, a winter climate change experiment, where site-representative target trees were selected by means of dendroecology, contributed to a mechanistic understanding of winter cold sensitivity in forest growth dynamics. Dendroecological investigations then put the findings in a broader temporal and spatial context by describing local climate sensitivity of tree growth on different spatial scales. This thesis further shows that global generalizations about the relationship of climate and ecological processes in ecosystem models have to be critically reviewed for the need of local and regional adjustment because these processes might experience considerable regional- or local-scale variation. However, this thesis reports uniform sensitivity of ecological processes to altered winter soil temperature regimes across a large winter temperature gradient. Thus, upscaling from insights of previous winter climate change experiments to regional scales is encouraged.
Individual white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) growth limitations at treelines in Alaska
(2018)
White spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) is one of the most common conifers in Alaska and various treelines mark the species distribution range. Because treelines positions are driven by climate and because climate change is estimated to be strongest in northern latitudes, treeline shifts appear likely. However, species range shifts depend on various species parameters, probably most importantly on phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation
and dispersal. Due to their long generation cycles and their immobility, trees evolved to endure a wide variety of climatic conditions. In most locations, interannual climate variability is larger than the expected climate change until 2100. Thus treeline position is typically thought of as the integrated effect of multiple years and to lag behind gradual climate change by several decades. Past dendrochronological studies revealed that growth of white spruce in Alaska can be limited by several climatic variables, in particular water stress and low temperatures. Depending on how the intensity of climate warming, this could result in a leading range edge at treelines limited by low temperatures and trailing treelines where soil moisture is or becomes most limiting. Climate-growth correlations are the dendrochronological version of reaction norms and describe the relationship between an environmental variable and traits like tree-ring parameters (e.g. ring width, wood density, wood anatomy). These correlations can be used to explore potential effects of climate change on a target species. However, it is known that individuals differ with respect to multiple variables like size, age, microsite conditions, competition status or their genome. Such individual differences could be important because they can modulate climate-growth relationships and consequently also range shifts and growth trends. Removing individual differences by averaging tree-ring parameters of many individuals into site chronologies could be an oversimplification that might bias estimates of future white spruce performance. Population dynamics that emerge from the interactions of individuals (e.g. competition) and the range of reactions to the same environmental drivers can only be studied via individual tree analyses. Consequently, this thesis focuses on factors that might alter individual white spruce’ climate sensitivity and methods to assess such effects. In particular, the research articles included explore three topics:
1. First, clones were identified via microsatellites and high-frequency climate signals of clones were compared to that of non-clonal individuals. Clonal and non-clonal individuals showed similar high-frequency climate signals which allows to use clonal and non-clonal individuals to construct mean site chronologies. However, clones were more frequently found under the harsher environmental conditions at the treelines which could be of interest for the species survival strategy at alpine treelines and is further explored in the associated RESPONSE project A5 by David Würth.
2. In the second article, methods for the exploration and visualization of individual-tree differences in climate sensitivity are described. These methods represent a toolbox to explore causes for the variety of different climate sensitivities found in individual
trees at the same site. Though, overlaying gradients of multiple factors like temperature, tree density and/or tree height can make it difficult to attribute a single cause to the range of reaction norms (climate growth correlations).
3. Lastly, the third article attempts to disentangle the effect of age and size on climate-growth correlations. Multiple past studies found that trees of different Ages responded differently to climatic drivers. In contrast, other studies found that trees do not age like many other organisms. Age and size of a trees are roughly correlated, though there are large differences in the growth rate of trees, which can lead to smaller trees that are older than taller trees. Consequently, age is an imperfect Proxy for size and in contrast to age, size has been shown to affect wood anatomy and thus tree physiology. The article compares two tree-age methods and one tree-size method based on cumulative ring width. In line with previous research on aging and Wood anatomy, tree size appeared to be the best predictor to explain ontogenetic changes in white spruce’ climate sensitivity. In particular, tallest trees exhibited strongest correlations with water stress in previous year July. In conclusion, this thesis is about factors that can alter climate-growth relationships (reaction norms) of white spruce. The results emphasize that interactions between climate variables and other factors like tree size or competition status are important for estimates of future tree growth and potential treeline shifts. In line with previous studies on white spruce in Alaska, the results of this thesis underline the importance of water stress for white spruce.
Individuals that are taller and that have more competitors for water appear to be most susceptible to the potentially drier future climate in Alaska. While tree ring based growth trends estimates of white spruce are difficult to derive due to multiple overlaying low frequency (>10 years) signals, all investigated treeline sites showed highest growth at the treeline edge. This could indicate expanding range edges. However, a potential bottleneck for treeline advances and retreats could be seedling establishment, which should be explored in more detail in the future.
Quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation cover commonly require pollen productivity estimates (PPEs). PPEs are calibrated in extensive and rather cumbersome surface-sample studies, and are so far only available for selected regions. Moreover, it may be questioned whether present-day pollen-landcover relationships are valid for palaeo-situations. We here introduce the ROPES approach that simultaneously derives PPEs and mean plant abundances from single pollen records. ROPES requires pollen counts and pollen accumulation rates (PARs, grains cm−2 year−1). Pollen counts are used to reconstruct plant abundances following the REVEALS approach. The principle of ROPES is that changes in plant abundance are linearly represented in observed PAR values. For example, if the PAR of pine doubles, so should the REVEALS reconstructed abundance of pine. Consequently, if a REVEALS reconstruction is “correct” (i.e., “correct” PPEs are used) the ratio “PAR over REVEALS” is constant for each taxon along all samples of a record. With incorrect PPEs, the ratio will instead vary. ROPES starts from random (likely incorrect) PPEs, but then adjusts them using an optimization algorithm with the aim to minimize variation in the “PAR over REVEALS” ratio across the record. ROPES thus simultaneously calculates mean plant abundances and PPEs. We illustrate the approach with test applications on nine synthetic pollen records. The results show that good performance of ROPES requires data sets with high underlying variation, many samples and low noise in the PAR data. ROPES can deliver first landcover reconstructions in regions for which PPEs are not yet available. The PPEs provided by ROPES may then allow for further REVEALS-based reconstructions. Similarly, ROPES can provide insight in pollen productivity during distinct periods of the past such as the Lateglacial. We see a potential to study spatial and temporal variation in pollen productivity for example in relation to site parameters, climate and land use. It may even be possible to detect expansion of non-pollen producing areas in a landscape. Overall, ROPES will help produce more accurate landcover reconstructions and expand reconstructions into new study regions and non-analog situations of the past. ROPES is available within the R package DISQOVER.
Dendrochronology, the science of tree-rings is a tool which has been widely used for many years for understanding changes in the environment, as trees react to environmental changes over time. In the contemporary situation, where climate warming in the Arctic is unequivocal and its effects on the Alpine and tundra ecosystems are seen pronouncedly in the past decade, the role of dendro-studies and the use of trees and shrubs alike as proxies of change has become critical. Studies clearly indicate that warming in the Arctic and Alpine tundra has resulted in increased vegetation in recent years. Shrubs, in these sensitive ecosystems, have proven to be highly instrumental as they likely benefit from this warming and hence are good indicators and auditees of this change. Therefore, in this study, we investigate the potential of shrubs in the evolving field of dendro-ecology/climatology.
Studies from classical dendrochronology used annual rings from trees. Further, because of shrub sensitivity to contemporary change, shrub-based dendrochronological research has increased at a notable scale in the last decade and will likely continue. This is because shrubs grow even beyond the tree line and promise environmental records from areas where tree growth is very limited or absent. However, a common limitation noted by most shrub studies is the very hard cross-dating due to asynchronous growth patterns. This limitation poses a major hurdle in shrub-based dendrochronological studies, as it renders weak detection of common signals in growth patterns in population stands. This common signal is traced by using a ‘site-chronology’.
In this dissertation, I studied shrub growth through various resolutions, starting from understanding radial growth within individuals along the length of the stem, to comparison of radial growth responses among male and female shrubs, to comparing growth responses among trees and shrubs to investigation of biome-wide functional trait responses to current warming. Apart from Chapter 4 and Chapter 6, I largely used Juniperus communis sp. for investigations as it is the most widely distributed woody dioecious species often used in dendro-ecological investigations in the Northern Hemisphere.
Primarily, we investigated radial growth patterns within shrubs to better understand growth within individuals by comparing different stem-disks from different stem heights within individuals. We found significant differences in radial growth from different stem-disks with respect to stem heights from same individuals. Furthermore, we found that these differences depending on the choice of the stem-disk affect the resulting site-chronology and hence climate-sensitivity to a substantial extent and that the choice of a stem-disk is a crucial precursor which affects climate-growth relationships.
Secondly, we investigated if gender difference – often reported causing differential radial growth in dioecious trees – is an influential factor for heterogeneous growth. We found that at least in case of Juniperus communis. L and Juniperus communis ssp nana. WILLD there is no substantial gender biased difference in radial growth which might affect the site-chronology. We did find moderate differences between sexes in an overall analysis and attribute this to reproductive effort in females.
In our study to test the potential of shrubs for reconstruction, we used a test case of Alnus viridis ssp crispa. We found a strong correlation between ring-width indices and summer temperature. Initially, the model failed the stability tests when we tested the stability of this relation using a response function model. However, using wood-anatomical analysis we discovered that this was because of abnormal cell-wall formation resulting in very thin rings in the year 2004. Pointer year analysis revealed that the thin rings were caused because of a moth larval outbreak and when corrected for these rings the model passed all stability tests.
Furthermore, to see if trees and shrubs growing in same biomes react to environmental changes similarly, a network analysis with sites ranging from the Mediterranean biome to the Ural Mountains in Russia was carried out. We found that shrubs react better to the current climate warming and have a decoupled divergent temperature response as compared to coexisting trees. This outcome reiterated the importance of shrub studies in relation to contemporary climate change. Even though trees and shrubs are woody forms producing annual rings, they have very different growth patterns and need different methods for analysis and data treatment.
Finally, in a domain-wide network analysis from plant-community vegetation survey, we investigated functional relationships between plant traits (leaf area, plant height, leaf nitrogen content, specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf dry matter content (LDMC)) and abiotic factors viz. temperature and soil moisture. We found a strong relation between summer temperature and community height, SLA and LDMC on a spatial scale. Contrarily, the temporal-analysis revealed SLA and LDMC lagged and did not respond to temperature over the last decade. We realized that there are complex interactions between intra-specific and inter-specific plant traits which differ spatially and temporally impacting Arctic ecosystems in terms of carbon turn over, surface albedo, water balance and heat-energy fluxes. We found that ecosystem functions in the Arctic are closely linked with plant height and will be indicative of warming in the short term future becoming key factors in modelling ecosystem projections.
Climate Change-Induced Shift of Tree Growth Sensitivity at a Central Himalayan Treeline Ecotone
(2018)
Tree growth at northern boreal treelines is generally limited by summer temperature, hence tree rings serve as natural archives of past climatic conditions. However, there is increasing evidence that a changing summer climate as well as certain micro-site conditions can lead to a weakening or loss of the summer temperature signal in trees growing in treeline environments. This phenomenon poses a challenge to all applications relying on stable temperature-growth relationships such as temperature reconstructions and dynamic vegetation models. We tested the effect of differing ecological and climatological conditions on the summer temperature signal of Scots pine at its northern distribution limits by analyzing twelve sites distributed along a 2200 km gradient from Finland to Western Siberia (Russia). Two frequently used proxies in dendroclimatology, ring width and maximum latewood density, were correlated with summer temperature for the period 1901–2013 separately for (i) dry vs. wet micro-sites and (ii) years with dry/warm vs. wet/cold climate regimes prevailing during the growing season. Differing climate regimes significantly affected the temperature signal of Scots pine at about half of our sites: While correlations were stronger in wet/cold than in dry/warm years at most sites located in Russia, differing climate regimes had only little effect at Finnish sites. Both tree-ring proxies were affected in a similar way. Interestingly, micro-site differences significantly affected absolute tree growth, but had only minor effects on the climatic signal at our sites. We conclude that, despite the treeline-proximal location, growth-limiting conditions seem to be exceeded in dry/warm years at most Russian sites, leading to a weakening or loss of the summer temperature signal in Scots pine here. With projected temperature increase, unstable summer temperature signals in Scots pine tree rings might become more frequent, possibly affecting dendroclimatological applications and related fields.