Open Access

Christin Thum, Thomas Lenarz, Steffen Fleßa

• Background Despite the current undersupply of cochlear implants (CIs) with simultaneously increasing indication, CI implantation numbers in Germany still are at a relatively low level. Methods As there are hardly any solid forecasts available in the literature, we develop a System Dynamics model that forecasts the number and costs of CI implantations in adults for 40 years from a social health insurance (SHI) perspective. Results CI demand will grow marginally by demographic changes causing average annual costs of about 538 million €. Medical-technical progress with following relaxed indication criteria and patients’ increasing willingness for implantation will increase implantation numbers significantly with average annual costs of 765 million €. Conclusion CI demand by adults will increase in the future, thus will the costs for CI supply. Continuous research and development in CI technology and supply is crucial to ensure long-term financing of the growing CI demand through cost-reducing innovations.