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Abstract: The Arctic has experienced a pronounced increase in air temperature over the last four decades, with an average increase of 0.4 °C per decade and thus an increase of almost the double rate than that of temperate regions. Remote sensing studies and repeat photography of historical images have shown large-scale increases of plant productivity in tundra ecosystems over the same time period. A pronounced size, abundance and biomass increase of shrubs has been observed. This so called shrub expansion has important repercussions for the vegetation, the animals, the soil, the energy and the carbon balance of the Arctic tundra and on regional and global climate. As the comparison of historical photographs with recent photographs has shown, this shrub expansion occurs on different temporal and spatial scales with areas of strong increase in shrub cover (expanding patches) and areas without noticeable changes in shrub vegetation (stable patches). While remote sensing approaches for the detection of changes in vegetation are limited in their temporal coverage and so far also in their resolution, historical photographs with high resolution are often not available. Experimental studies have shown that an increase in nutrients or temperature often resulted in increased shrub biomass, but findings were partly contradictory, referred to short term observations and usually confined to small areas. To bridge the gap between spatially limited plot-scale experiments and global large-scale assessment of plant productivity by satellite derived pictures, dendrochronology was used in this thesis to analyze the drivers for and the rate of shrub growth of different widespread evergreen and deciduous shrub species in alpine and arctic tundra and to reconstruct historic environmental conditions. In detail, this doctoral thesis was conducted to study shrub growth and to assess the applicability of traditional dendrochronological methods on shrubs that had been so far mainly applied to trees and to test whether shrubs differed morphologically from trees. Further, I was determined to look for evidence for a possible Scandinavian shrub range expansion and to assess which climatic factors – temperature, precipitation or snow – influenced shrub growth significantly. Moreover, we aimed to find the reason for the observed heterogeneity of the shrub expansion on the landscape and its relevance for the three most common shrubs on the Alaskan tundra. The methods applied followed the routines usually applied for dendrochronological analyses of treerings, with the exception that usually several stem discs of the main stem were analyzed and frequently had to be prepared with help of a microtome as thin-sections, that were stained and sealed on a coverglass before annual shrubrings were measured. The averaged shrubring widths were then compared with environmental factors through correlation and regression methods. This thesis gives first a general introduction to climate change in the Arctic, shrub expansion on the tundra, the scientific discipline of dendrochronology or -ecology on shrubs and its development, the main research questions and the thesis outline. Then seven research papers are presented and the main results and conclusions are synthesized and discussed and finally possible venues of future research are outlined. The most important insights gained from this thesis are the following: I) Dendroecological methods can be applied to shrubs. Insights into shrub morphology have been gained by detecting an interesting mechanism for coping with adverse environmental conditions of both, trees and shrubs that can save resources by confining the production of wood to the upper parts of the stem. II) Further, I found evidence for a shrub expansion in Scandinavia. III) I could establish the causal link between the current climate warming and increased radial and vertical shrub growth by identifying summer temperature as main driver for shrub growth. IV) Results from the Alaskan tundra indicate a strongly adverse role of snow for shrub growth in stable patches, refuting the popular snow-shrub-microbe hypothesis for this extensive area across species. The differing influence of snow is likely linked to the presence of permafrost and shallow active layers and the snow’s contribution to moist or even anoxic conditions in Alaska. V) Furthermore, we found that the different rates and the spatial heterogeneity of shrub expansion are accompanied by strong differences in the surrounding vegetation composition and the soil parameters of expanding (accustomed to more favorable conditions) and stable shrub patches. VI) These differences are predisposed by shrub patch position within the landscape, comprising different levels and rates of disturbance. VII) Additionally, shrub ring records were successfully used as natural archives to model past temperature dynamics respectively summer glacier mass balance with high accuracy. VIII) Finally, a synthesis of the climate-growth relationships of shrubs of more than 25 sites around the Arctic as joined effort together with other leading shrub researchers supports the presence of a circumpolar shrub expansion, gives recommendations for methods used in shrub dendroecology and lays out future research directions. The findings of my dissertation research show that the analysis of shrubs by dendroecological methods yields highly interesting results, and they greatly improved our understanding of factors that influence individual shrub growth, the reconstruction of earlier environmental conditions as well as the reconstruction and assessment of plant population dynamics.
Global change, amongst others characterized by increasing temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, an increase of extreme climatic events and continued atmospheric depositions of pollutants, is expected to severely impact forest ecosystems worldwide. The complex interplay between different factors acting upon tree growth, combined with regional patterns in climatic change calls for a region specific evaluation of the possible consequences on forest ecosystems. For northeastern Germany regional climate models identify a rise in temperatures and a change in precipitation patterns. Drier summers and wetter winters together with an increase in extreme weather events are seen as the most pronounced changes that will occur during the 21st century. In this thesis I analysed past growth rates and climate-growth relationships in different stands of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and oak (Quercus robur L.) along a gradient of decreasing precipitation in a space for time approach. Special attention was paid to the influence of summer drought, soil waterlogging and the importance of site conditions in modulating the reactions to these climatic stressors. Departing from these retrospective analyses, future growth trends are modelled for beech, oak and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), based on projections of a regional climate model until the year 2100. Furthermore, I studied the influence of sudden and extreme shifts in hydrological conditions on the growth of oaks in a drained peatland that was subject to catastrophic rewetting. All analyses of this thesis are based on ring-width and wood anatomical features applying a variety of dendrochronological methods. The gradient approach revealed similar climate-growth relationships for beech and oak on drought exposed, sandy sites, where water availability during early summer was the main growth-limiting factor for both species. Decreasing precipitation rates towards the East are associated with higher drought susceptibility, especially for beech. As a result, competitive superiority of beech over oak decreases. In a drier future the competitive balance between the two species may shift (rank reversal). During the past decades beech has shown larger interannual growth variability and a higher number of growth depressions. These changes might indicate that increasing temperatures and climatic variability are already affecting its growth patterns and climate sensitivity. This is in line with the prospective modelling approach. According to our models, growth trends will turn negative for beech and oak towards the end of the 21st century, with beech showing the highest growth reduction (23% compared to the reference period 1971-2000). For pine, modelled growth rates show only minor changes. Whereas beech and oak shared a high common signal on the dry sites, the two species differed in high frequency ring patterns on the wet sites. On poorly drained, loamy soils beech, with its superficial root system, suffered from summer droughts. In contrast, on these sites ring-width of pedunculate oak was not correlated to summer moisture conditions resulting in differing interannual ring patterns between dry and wet sites. Wet periods with high soil water saturation did not have a negative influence on the growth of either species. Such a lack of response is not surprising for oak, which is generally known as rather tolerant to soil waterlogging, but it indicates an unexpectedly high tolerance of beech to stagnating wetness. Using the natural laboratory of an oak forest that suffered a catastrophic flooding I could show that slower grown trees that had likely been suppressed displayed a higher adaptive capacity compared with bigger, dominant trees. Many of the previously dominant individuals died within 18 years after the event. Trees that survived the groundwater rise displayed a typical ring pattern: growth was suppressed for a few years, but afterwards recovered and even surpassed previous growth rates, most likely as a result of competition release. The sudden hydrological change left a clear imprint in ring patterns and wood anatomical features in both the dying and the surviving trees. This differentiated imprint may be helpful for a better interpretation of growth patterns found in subfossil bog oaks, an important climate proxy of the Holocene. The insights gained from this thesis support existing concerns about drought induced growth decline for oak, but especially for beech. Changes in precipitation patterns might lead to wetter conditions during winter, but these will likely have only little effect on growth. Both s show rather high resilience to stagnating wetness. More likely, it are extreme events like prolonged droughts or heavy rainfalls that might breach thresholds in the ability of the two species to cope with too much or too little water. Such extreme events thus pose a strong risk to the future growth performance of both oak and beech.
Forests are and have been of major importance to cover a variety of societal needs. Today the demands on forests are ever increasing with sequestering carbon and balancing the climate, to name only a few. To cover those requirements forests need vital, productive, and sustainable. A difficult concept as such as the understanding of a healthy forest varies greatly. Nevertheless, forests still have to produce a sufficient amount of yield while threatened by changing climate conditions. These are predicted to bring extended and more intense drought periods as well as a higher frequency of storms and the promotion of secondary disturbances like insects calamities to also rise. In this complex situation of high and versatile demand the focus is on the allocation of the “right” forest. Forest management is requested to balance the needs of humans against those of wildlife against those of the trees themselves. To gain the respective knowledge on species responses and provenance growth, now and in the future research gaps need to be closed. All factors influencing tree growth and therefore ultimately yield need to be understood and special focus needs to be on the interactions within the forest ecosystem. One of the parameters in understanding aggregated tree growth is the dynamic of growth. This can be visualised by dendroecological methods, providing a picture of growth within the individual years. Growth dynamics are dependent on multiple factors, some, like soil being preconditioning and other like climate causing short-term responses. In this thesis I focus on the influence of climate on annual tree growth using a new approach of daily climate data to calculate climate-growth correlations. This method has the advantage of representing tree processes better than the former approach of using monthly means. Furthermore the program enables the user to feed climate scenarios and therefore estimate future growth. To gather information on species as well as provenance differences to provide advice to foresters I used different trials in Britain and Germany. On the British site different oak species were planted while the German sites are stocked with various spruce provenances. For the latter we additionally used stable carbon isotope analysis to calculate intrinsic water use efficiency. The climate-growth correlations revealed differences between the oak species with a generally higher linkage to precipitation than temperature. While the differences are clear, the question of thresholds and the role of extreme events became apparent in this work. VII Abstract Assessing the impact of extreme events using dendrometer data revealed little differences in the response to short term events of the three investigated species, oak, beech, and pine. We were able to pick up stimulus-response-relationships and as a novel result no species-specific responses were found when focusing on such a small time frame. The provenance trials offered the opportunity to investigate the potential of the use of daily climate data more closely. The two contrasting sites planted with six spruce provenances each gave an insight on the adaptive potential of provenances as well as an indication on the response times. Depending on the proceeding environmental and the local climate conditions decisions have to be made on the species or provenance selection. This thesis provides a method as well as insight on the behaviour of the important European species beech, oak, pine, and spruce. It, however, highlights the limitations such methods have for large scale estimates. While general trends on the response to specific soil factors can be used, the climatic responses, be it thresholds or climate-growth correlations can only be seen within the ecological context of their sampling region.
The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is projected for the 21st century is predicted to have severe impacts on ecosystems and on the provision of ecosystem services. With respect to the longevity of trees, forestry in particular has to adapt now to future climate change. This requires profound multidisciplinary knowledge on the direct and indirect climate sensitivity of forest ecosystems on various spatial scales. Predictions on growth declines due to increasing drought exposition during climate change are widely recognized for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), which is the major forest tree in European temperate deciduous forests. However, research from other continents or other biomes has shown that winter climate change may also affect forest growth dynamics due to declining snow cover and increased soil cooling. So far, this winter cold sensitivity is largely unexplored in Europe. Thus, particularly focussing on forest growth dynamics and winter cold sensitivity, the goal of this PhD-project was to explore how climate sensitivity of forest ecosystems differs regionally. By doing so, the project aimed to deliver insights about possibilities and limits of upscaling regional knowledge to a global understanding of climate sensitivity. To achieve these goals, this PhD-project integrated five studies (Manuscripts 1–5) that investigated the climate sensitivity of biogeochemical cycles, plant species composition in forests, and forest growth dynamics across spatial scales. In particular, a large-scale gradient-design field experiment simulated the influence of winter climate change on forest ecosystems by snow cover and soil temperature manipulations (Manuscript 1). This study indicated that soil cooling and decreased root nutrient uptake may indirectly reduce growth of adult forest trees. Moreover, this study indicated uniform ecological sensitivity to soil temperature changes across sites along a large winter temperature gradient (ΔT = 4 K across 500 km), irrespective of the site-specific history of snow cover conditions, which motivates upscaling from local winter climate change studies to the regional scale. Although regional climate drives growth of adult forest trees, local factors, such as site-specific edaphic conditions, might control plants in the forest understory. This assumption was tested by mapping the forest understory composition along the same winter temperature gradient as introduced above (Manuscript 2). Across sites, this study found that edaphic conditions explained the spatial turnover in the forest understory composition more than climate, which might moderate direct climate change impacts on the forest understory composition. However, edaphic conditions, forest structure, and climate are linked by triangular interactions. Thus, climate change might still indirectly affect the forest vegetation dynamics. Moreover, a dendroecological study focussed on the same winter temperature gradient from central to cold-marginal beech populations as above in order to identify gradual changes in summer drought and winter cold sensitivity in tree growth (Manuscript 3). Towards the cold distribution margin, the influence of drought on tree growth gradually decreased, while growth reductions were increasingly related to winter cold due to harsher winter climate. By a large-scale dendroecological network study assessed the relationship of growth dynamics to climate and reproductive effort in beech forests across Europe (Manuscript 4). Indeed, this study found the general pattern across the distribution range of beech that high temperature controlled growth indirectly via resource allocation to reproduction. However, the strong, direct drought signal that could be generally detected from dry-marginal to central populations vanished towards the cold-marginal populations, where the more focussed study of Manuscript 3 identified a stronger relationship of tree growth to winter cold. Further extending the scope of this PhD-thesis to global scales, litter decomposition rates were assessed across biomes (Manuscript 5). This study found a robust relationship between climate and decomposition rates, but it also demonstrated large within-biome variability on a local scale. These local scale differences might depend on habitat conditions that, in turn, could be modulated by climate change, which calls for a better exploration of indirect climate sensitivity. In conclusion, this PhD-thesis highlighted that multidisciplinary research can advance the understanding of ecological interactions in forest ecosystems under changing climate scenarios. In this PhD-project, a winter climate change experiment, where site-representative target trees were selected by means of dendroecology, contributed to a mechanistic understanding of winter cold sensitivity in forest growth dynamics. Dendroecological investigations then put the findings in a broader temporal and spatial context by describing local climate sensitivity of tree growth on different spatial scales. This thesis further shows that global generalizations about the relationship of climate and ecological processes in ecosystem models have to be critically reviewed for the need of local and regional adjustment because these processes might experience considerable regional- or local-scale variation. However, this thesis reports uniform sensitivity of ecological processes to altered winter soil temperature regimes across a large winter temperature gradient. Thus, upscaling from insights of previous winter climate change experiments to regional scales is encouraged.
Species have to cope with climate change either by migration or by adaptation and acclimatisation. Especially for long-living tree species with a low seed dispersal capacity (e.g. European beech, hereafter called beech), the in situ responses through genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play an important role for their persistence. Beech, the dominant climax tree species in Central Europe, shows a high drought sensitivity and its distribution range is expected to shift northwards. On the other hand, projected northward shifts need to be taken with caution, as some studies suggest a sensitivity of beech to frost events in winter and spring. However, studies on the growth performance of cold-marginal beech populations are still rare. Previous studies on beech populations found local adaptation to drought and phenotypic plasticity in fitness-related traits as well as phenological traits. However, studies on the regeneration of beech under natural conditions are yet missing, although germination and establishment of young trees are a very first selective bottleneck and are crucial for tree population persistence and for successful range shifts.
This PhD-thesis aimed to identify the potential of plasticity and local adaptation in the important early life-history traits germination, establishment after the 1st year, and survival after the 2nd year in a reciprocal transplantation experiment at 11 sites across and even beyond the distribution range of beech (Manuscript 1). Moreover, this thesis investigated the climate sensitivity and the adaptation potential of beech populations by conducting dendroecological studies along a large climatic gradient across the distribution range (Manuscript 2) and along a strong winter temperature gradient towards the cold distribution margin in Poland (Manuscript 3). In addition, the impact of local climatic singularities was studied in a local study at the southern margin (Manuscript 4).
Warm and dry conditions limited natural regeneration, which was indicated by very low survival of young trees, even though germination rates increased with increasing temperature (Manuscript 1). This was also the case in parts of the distribution centre due to the hot and dry conditions in 2018. Although the transplantation experiment revealed high plasticity in the early life-history traits, this plasticity might thus not buffer against climate change under dry conditions. Local adaptation was not detected for any of these traits along the climatic gradient. In contrast, the results of the dendroecological study across the gradient (Manuscript 2) hint towards an adaptation potential of adult trees to drought at the southern margin. Thus, adult trees seemed to be adapted to drought at the southern margin, whereas tree growth in the distribution centre was sensitive to drought. These results indicate that parts of the centre may become ecologically marginal with increasing drought frequency in times of climate change. Interestingly, Manuscript 4 shows that beech growth was positively influenced by frequent fog immersion at the southern distribution margin in north-eastern Spain. This study underlines the importance of local climatic singularities, as they may allow marginal populations to grow in climate refugia in an otherwise unfavourable climate.
At the cold distribution margin, the study in Manuscript 1 found a remarkably higher survival of young trees in Sweden than in Poland. Moreover, the dendroecological studies revealed that beech was hampered by both drought at the cold-dry margin (Manuscript 2) and by winter cold at the cold-wet margin in Poland (Manuscript 3). All these results highlight the importance to study climate sensitivity of adult trees and the response of early life-history traits at the cold margin with a more differentiated view comparing cold-dry against the cold-wet populations and growing conditions. However, the high plasticity of the early life-history traits may allow for an increasing germination rate with climate warming at the northern margin and may thus facilitate natural regeneration there. In contrast, the dendroecological studies suggest that adult trees at the cold distribution margin may suffer either from drought or from winter cold and that the risk for spring frost may increase. Thus, the often-predicted compensation of dry-marginal population decline by a northward range expansion should be discussed more critically.
In conclusion, my PhD thesis provides new knowledge about the potential of natural regeneration and about climate sensitivity of adult trees across the distribution range of beech. Moreover, it underlines the importance to study both the young tree stages as well as adult trees to assess the performance and vulnerability of tree species under climate change, as both showed differences in their response to changing environmental conditions.