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Abstract
The role of future forests in global biogeochemical cycles will depend on how different tree species respond to climate. Interpreting the response of forest growth to climate change requires an understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal climatic influences on the growth of common tree species. We constructed a new network of 310 tree‐ring width chronologies from three common tree species (Quercus robur, Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica) collected for different ecological, management and climate purposes in the south Baltic Sea region at the border of three bioclimatic zones (temperate continental, oceanic, southern boreal). The major climate factors (temperature, precipitation, drought) affecting tree growth at monthly and seasonal scales were identified. Our analysis documents that 20th century Scots pine and deciduous species growth is generally controlled by different climate parameters, and that summer moisture availability is increasingly important for the growth of deciduous species examined. We report changes in the influence of winter climate variables over the last decades, where a decreasing influence of late winter temperature on deciduous tree growth and an increasing influence of winter temperature on Scots pine growth was found. By comparing climate–growth responses for the 1943–1972 and 1973–2002 periods and characterizing site‐level growth response stability, a descriptive application of spatial segregation analysis distinguished sites with stable responses to dominant climate parameters (northeast of the study region), and sites that collectively showed unstable responses to winter climate (southeast of the study region). The findings presented here highlight the temporally unstable and nonuniform responses of tree growth to climate variability, and that there are geographical coherent regions where these changes are similar. Considering continued climate change in the future, our results provide important regional perspectives on recent broad‐scale climate–growth relationships for trees across the temperate to boreal forest transition around the south Baltic Sea.
Abstract
Aim
Distribution ranges of temperate tree species are shifting poleward and upslope into cooler environments due to global warming. Successful regeneration is crucial for population persistence and range expansion. Thus, we aimed to identify environmental variables that affect germination and seedling establishment of Europe's dominant forest tree, to compare the importance of plasticity and genetic variation for regeneration, and to evaluate the regeneration potential at and beyond the southern and northern distribution margins.
Location
Europe.
Time period
2016–2018.
Major taxa studied
European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L.)).
Methods
We investigated how germination, establishment and juvenile survival change across a reciprocal transplantation experiment using over 9,000 seeds of beech from 7 populations from its southern to its northern distribution range margins.
Results
Germination and establishment at the seedling stage were highly plastic in response to environmental conditions. Germination success increased with warmer and declined with colder air temperature, whereas establishment and survival were hampered under warmer and drier conditions. Germination differed among populations and was positively influenced by seed weight. However, there was no evidence of local adaptation in any trait.
Main conclusions
The high plasticity in the early life‐history traits found irrespective of seed origin may allow for short‐term acclimatization. However, our results also indicate that this plasticity might not be sufficient to ensure the regeneration of beech in the future due to the low survival found under dry and hot conditions. The future climatic conditions in parts of the distribution centre and at the rear edge might thus become limiting for natural regeneration, as the likelihood of extreme heat and drought events will increase. By contrast, at the cold distribution margin, the high plasticity in the early life‐history traits may allow for increasing germination success with increasing temperatures and may thus facilitate natural regeneration in the future.