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Species persistence in the face of rapidly progressing environmental change requires adaptive responses that allow organisms to either cope with the novel conditions in their habitat or to follow their environmental niche in space. A poleward range shift due to global warming induced habitat loss in the south has been predicted for the lesser horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus hipposideros. Theoretical as well as numerous empirical studies link range expansion success to increased dispersal and reproduction rates due to spatial sorting and r-selection resulting from low population densities at the expansion front. R. hipposideros females however are highly philopatric and the species’ life history reflects a K- rather than an r-strategy, encompassing a long life span and limited individual annual reproductive output. I therefore investigated if adaptations in these traits determining range expansion success (dispersal and reproduction) can be observed in this bat species of high conservation concern. Genetic diversity presents a critical factor for adaptive responses to global change, both for range expansion and for coping with novel environmental conditions. I hence explored the genetic diversity levels of European R. hipposideros leading edge populations and their drivers for an assessment of these populations’ evolutionary potential and the development of conservation recommendations.
Comparing range expansion traits between an expanding R. hipposideros metapopulation in Germany and a non-expanding one in France revealed that range expansion was associated with an increase in juvenile survival and fecundity, and no decrease in adult survival. These results demonstrate than an increase in reproduction and growth rates is generally possible in R. hipposideros, indicating a potential adaptation (sensu lato) to range expansion. A positive correlation between adult and juvenile survival in the expanding metapopulation suggests higher resource acquisition in the expanding metapopulation, giving rise to the question if the observed demographic changes have a genetic basis or if they are rather induced by differences in environmental conditions between the two metapopulations. Long-term range expansion success requires adaptive evolutionary changes. The relative contribution of the former and that of undirected changes resulting e.g. from differences in resource availability therefore will have to be investigated in more detail in the future to allow predictions about range expansion dynamics in R. hipposideros.
The number of individuals within a radius of approximately 60 to 90 km around a population (as a measure of connectivity) was identified as the main positive driver of the studied populations’ genetic diversity. Overall genetic diversity levels in German R. hipposideros populations were found to be reduced compared to populations in France as a legacy of demographic bottlenecks resulting from severe population declines in the mid-20th century. This finding is alarming as future range expansion can be expected to entail a further decrease in genetic diversity. The resulting loss of genetic diversity can be expected to be particularly strong in R. hipposideros due to the detected dependence of genetic diversity on connectivity, because range expansion often results in small and patchy populations.
Protecting and ideally re-installing genetic diversity in R. hipposideros leading edge populations therefore presents a conservation goal of utmost importance. To achieve this endeavour, conservation efforts should target the protection of extensive networks of well-connected populations. Geographical concentration of individuals should be avoided and populations in key locations that connect clusters must be protected particularly well to prevent populations from becoming isolated. Continuous, regular monitoring of population trends is also important for a quick registration of disturbances or threats, and the subsequent rapid development of countermeasures to preclude further demographic declines.
The reduced levels of genetic diversity in the German metapopulation precluded a reliable quantification of dispersal rates due to the reduced power of discrimination between individuals. While ongoing re-colonization and the establishment of new maternity colonies provide evidence for increased dispersal in the expanding metapopulation, evaluating the expected range expansion velocity of R. hipposideros in relation to the estimated velocity of global warming induced habitat loss will require the confirmation of the existing preliminary dispersal data by employing more genetic markers.
In times of recent climate change, mechanisms to deal with different environments (e.g. via dispersal to other habitats, or via in-situ responses such as genetic adaptation or phenotypic plasticity) are essential. In regions showing seasonality, organisms are already adapted to regular and, thus, often predictable environmental changes. One well-known strategy to survive periods of food shortage, especially during the winter, is hibernation. Although hibernation is already an adaptation to overcome unfavourable conditions, the optimal timing of hibernation to match for example food abundance peaks is likely to be influenced by changing climatic conditions, as expected during human-induced global change. Thus, the ability to respond to changes in optimal timing of hibernation can be crucial for organisms. All hibernators are positioned at the slow end of the slow-fast life history continuum. Longevity combined with a low annual reproductive output can result in slow recovery from population crashes and is expected to be associated with slow genetic adaptation. Therefore, it is assumed that phenotypic plasticity, a rather rapid and sometimes reversible process, is a crucial mechanism in long-lived organisms to adapt to changing environments. However, how differences in individual hibernation behaviour influence mortality and whether individuals are plastic with respect to their hibernation behaviour are largely unknown.
Recent studies suggest that climatic change can influence hibernation behaviour in various species differently, in a positive or negative way. Female Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus) delayed their emergence from hibernation with later snow melt and lower spring temperatures. Next to the environmental impact, emergence date showed a moderate heritability in female Columbian ground squirrels. Yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) emerged earlier from hibernation with warmer spring temperatures which resulted in a longer growing period for their offspring and, therefore, higher survival rates. In contrast, in alpine marmots (Marmota marmota) lower snow cover due to higher temperatures and, thus, less isolation led to lower juvenile survival. Negative effects, such as reduced juvenile survival, would be of high concern, especially for long-lived species with a low reproductive output.
Bats are exceptionally long-lived compared to other mammals of the same size and often show a low reproductive output with one offspring per year. This is especially true in the temperate zone where bats, furthermore, are characterized by seasonality and depend on hibernation during winter period to survive food and water shortage. Because bats are of high conservation concern it is of prime importance to understand their ability to respond to different climatic conditions and associated mortality costs.
The basis of this study was a five-year data set of 1047 RFID-tagged individuals from two bat species, Natterer’s bats (Myotis nattereri) and Daubenton’s bats (Myotis daubentonii), that were automatically tracked when entering or leaving the joint hibernaculum, “Brunnen Meyer”, located in north-western Germany. The two species are similar sized, share demographical traits and often occupy the same areas. Nevertheless, they differ in their foraging strategy and activity pattern during hibernation period. Natterer’s bats are able to glean insects from surfaces, even at low temperatures. Daubenton’s bats depend on flying arthropods and, thus, warmer temperatures. And indeed there is evidence that Natterer’s bats are able to hunt during hibernation period, while in Daubenton’s bats a lack of feeding during the hibernation period is suggested. Furthermore, Natterer’s bats are characterized by a higher activity at the hibernaculum throughout the hibernation period, while Daubenton’s bats on average arrive earlier, stay inactive through the winter and leave later in spring.
In both species, the aim was to investigate the impact of their individual hibernation behaviour, precisely the timing of departure in late winter and early spring, on mortality, their adjustment of departure timing to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), as well as differences within and between the two species from 2011 until 2015.
To later on estimate the potential mortality costs of departure timing, gaining knowledge about the seasonal survival pattern (winter vs. summer) in the two species was a first necessity. In birds, particularly small species were described as winter-regulated populations with a higher mortality during winter. In contrast, in hibernating mammal species, such as bats, a relatively lower or similar winter survival compared to summer survival was shown. In this study, the analysed data demonstrated that the winter 2010/2011 was exceptionally catastrophic in Natterer’s bats and did not impact Daubenton’s bats. When excluding this catastrophic winter in Natterer’ bats, our results revealed a stable winter-summer-survival difference (higher winter and lower summer survival) in adult Natterer’s and Daubenton’s bats, with inter-annual variation in the level of survival which indicates a potential environmental impact on survival. This winter-summer survival pattern is in line with the survival pattern shown for other hibernators. Juveniles always had a lower survival rate than adult bats in both species. Nevertheless, the extent to which the species differ between seasons and age classes was stronger in Daubenton’s bats. They always showed a slightly higher winter survival and a lower summer survival than Natterer’s bats. Together with the catastrophic winter 2010/2011 in Natterer’s bats, this indicates a species-specific sensitivity to the timing of specific weather events which is in line with their foraging strategies and activity pattern during hibernation period.
With respect to emergence behaviour from the hibernaculum, the results of this study suggest considerable differences among individuals within as well as between bat species. In comparison to Daubenton’s bats, Natterer’s bats tuned their emergence more closely to weather conditions, specifically the NAO, a large scale weather index related to winter severity, and showed individual variation in behavioural plasticity. In Daubenton’s bats only the females responded to changing conditions and left earlier in individually-experienced warmer and milder winters, comparable to Natterer’s bats females. A potential reason might be reproductive advantages for the females resulting in a longer growing period for their offspring. The shown higher winter survival in adult bats of both species indicated already higher energy expenditure outside the hibernaculum. Thus, leaving early, being active and staying outside longer by itself bore a risk (exposure risk effect). Under consideration of longer exposure times, early departing individuals had on top of that an increased risk to die. This was not given in each year, but a species- and year-specific pattern was revealed. Natterer’s bats were only significantly affected by early departure in 2011, while the remaining years show no significant additional risk of leaving early. In Daubenton’s bats, the years 2014 and 2015 were associated with a significantly higher mortality of leaving early. This is in line with the hypothesis that Daubenton’s bats might not be able to hunt for insects leaving too early and do so as a best out of a bad job. Nevertheless, the year-specific pattern suggests that early bats might profit from advantageous weather conditions during early spring.
An additional hint for an environmental impact on early bat survival in at least Daubenton’s bats is that the median proportion of night hours above 3 °C within five days after departure was included in the model with the lowest AIC. However, the effect was not strong enough to be selected as the best model and, therefore, further analyses are needed to investigate this first hint.
In conclusion, the reduced winter survival of juveniles compared to adults highlights the importance of considering age class effects in studies that investigate seasonal survival patterns. The stable species-specific winter-summer-survival difference with a higher winter survival compared to summer survival, as well as the one catastrophic winter in Natterer’s bats underline the importance of including seasonal survival patterns in assessing potential fitness costs of changed behaviour. Furthermore, our results suggest that long-lived hibernating bat species have the potential to plastically adjust to changing climatic conditions, but this potential differs between species. Among-individual differences in emergence together with species-specific mortality costs of early emergence suggest the potential for natural selection to shape hibernation phenology. In summary, our findings suggest species-, population- and group-specific differences in the ability to respond to changing environments and, therefore, underline the necessity to further investigate local responses in various organisms to estimate consequences of recent climate change on a wider range.