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How well populations can cope with global warming will often depend on the evolutionary potential and plasticity of their temperature-sensitive, fitness-relevant traits. In Bechstein's bats (Myotis bechsteinii), body size has increased over the last decades in response to warmer summers. If this trend continues it may threaten populations as larger females exhibit higher mortality. To assess the evolutionary potential of body size, we applied a Bayesian ‘animal model’ to estimate additive genetic variance, heritability and evolvability of body size, based on a 25-year pedigree of 332 wild females. Both heritability and additive genetic variance were reduced in hot summers compared to average and cold summers, while evolvability of body size was generally low. This suggests that the observed increase in body size was mostly driven by phenotypic plasticity. Thus, if warm summers continue to become more frequent, body size likely increases further and the resulting fitness loss could threaten populations.
How organisms that are part of the same trophic network respond to environmental variability over small spatial scales has been studied in a multitude of systems. Prevailing theory suggests a large role for plasticity in key traits among interacting species that allows matching of life cycles or life‐history traits across environmental gradients, for instance insects tracking host‐plant phenology across variable environments (Posledovich et al. 2018). A key aspect that remains understudied is the extent of intrapopulation variability in plasticity and whether stressful conditions canalize plasticity to an optimal level, or alternatively if variation in plasticity indeed could increase fitness in itself via alternative strategies. In a From the Cover article in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Kahilainen et al. (2022) investigate this issue in a classical insect study system, the metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitea cinxia) in the Åland archipelago of Finland. The authors first establish how a key host plant responds to water limitation, then quantify among‐family variation in larval growth and development across control and water‐limited host plants. Finally, they use RNA sequencing to gain mechanistic insights into some of these among‐family differences in larval performance in response to host‐plant variation, finding results suggesting the existence of heritable, intrapopulation variability in ecologically relevant plasticity. This final step represents a critically important and often overlooked component of efforts to predict sensitivity of biological systems to changing environmental conditions, since it provides a key metric of adaptive resilience present in the system.
Introduction: At the cellular level, acute temperature changes alter ionic conductances, ion channel kinetics, and the activity of entire neuronal circuits. This can result in severe consequences for neural function, animal behavior and survival. In poikilothermic animals, and particularly in aquatic species whose core temperature equals the surrounding water temperature, neurons experience rather rapid and wide-ranging temperature fluctuations. Recent work on pattern generating neural circuits in the crustacean stomatogastric nervous system have demonstrated that neuronal circuits can exhibit an intrinsic robustness to temperature fluctuations. However, considering the increased warming of the oceans and recurring heatwaves due to climate change, the question arises whether this intrinsic robustness can acclimate to changing environmental conditions, and whether it differs between species and ocean habitats.
Methods: We address these questions using the pyloric pattern generating circuits in the stomatogastric nervous system of two crab species, Hemigrapsus sanguineus and Carcinus maenas that have seen a worldwide expansion in recent decades.
Results and discussion: Consistent with their history as invasive species, we find that pyloric activity showed a broad temperature robustness (>30°C). Moreover, the temperature-robust range was dependent on habitat temperature in both species. Warm-acclimating animals shifted the critical temperature at which circuit activity breaks down to higher temperatures. This came at the cost of robustness against cold stimuli in H. sanguineus, but not in C. maenas. Comparing the temperature responses of C. maenas from a cold latitude (the North Sea) to those from a warm latitude (Spain) demonstrated that similar shifts in robustness occurred in natural environments. Our results thus demonstrate that neuronal temperature robustness correlates with, and responds to, environmental temperature conditions, potentially preparing animals for changing ecological conditions and shifting habitats.
Understanding the effects of temperature and moisture on radial growth is vital for assessing the impacts of climate change on carbon and water cycles. However, studies observing growth at sub-daily temporal scales remain scarce.
We analysed sub-daily growth dynamics and its climatic drivers recorded by point dendrometers for 35 trees of three temperate broadleaved species during the years 2015–2020. We isolated irreversible growth driven by cambial activity from the dendrometer records. Next, we compared the intra-annual growth patterns among species and delimited their climatic optima.
The growth of all species peaked at air temperatures between 12 and 16°C and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) below 0.1 kPa. Acer pseudoplatanus and Fagus sylvatica, both diffuse-porous, sustained growth under suboptimal VPD. Ring-porous Quercus robur experienced a steep decline of growth rates with reduced air humidity. This resulted in multiple irregular growth peaks of Q. robur during the year. By contrast, the growth patterns of the diffuse-porous species were always right-skewed unimodal with a peak in June between day of the year 150–170.
Intra-annual growth patterns are shaped more by VPD than temperature. The different sensitivity of radial growth to VPD is responsible for unimodal growth patterns in both diffuse-porous species and multimodal growth pattern in Q. robur.
Relative importance of plastic and genetic responses to weather conditions in long-lived bats
(2022)
In the light of the accelerating pace of environmental change, it is imperative to understand how populations and species can adapt to altered environmental conditions. This is a crucial step in predicting current and future population persistence and limits thereof. Genetic adaption and phenotypic plasticity are two main mechanisms that can mediate the process of adaptation and are of particular importance for non-dispersing species. While phenotypic plasticity may enable individuals to cope with short term environmental changes, genetic adaptation will often be required for populations to survive in situ over longer time spans. However, a rapid genetic response is expected particularly in species with fast life histories or large population sizes, leaving species with slow life histories potentially at higher extinction risk. The Bechstein’s bat (Myotis bechsteinii) is a mammal of 10 g weight that - despite its small size - is characterized by a slow life history, with low reproductive output and long lifespan, and is already considered to be of high conservation concern. Past work demonstrated body size to be a highly fitness-relevant trait in Bechstein’s bats. Body size is further known to be a pivotal trait shaping the pace of life histories in numerous species. Simultaneously, many studies reported noteworthy changes in body size as a response to shifting environments across different taxa. This suggested a potential for high plasticity in this trait in Bechstein’s bats as well; however, changes in body size could have vital impacts on demographic rates.
Therefore, this dissertation investigated the following questions: firstly, what shapes the fundamental development of body size in M. bechsteinii, and, specifically, is there an impact of weather conditions on body size? If so, in what form and magnitude? Secondly, how does body size subsequently influence the pace of life in females? What is the cost of a faster or slower pace of life, and how does fitness compare across individuals with slow and fast life histories? And finally, to what extent can changes in body size be attributed to either phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation? What is the evolutionary potential of body size in the populations? And, consequently, what implications can we draw regarding population persistence of these colonies?
To answer these questions, we analyzed a long-term dataset of over two decades collected from four wild Bechstein’s bat colonies. We used individual-based data on survival, reproduction and body size, built multi-generational pedigrees, and combined everything with meteorological data. In Manuscript 1 we found that, in contrast to the declining body size observed in many species, body size in Bechstein’s bats increased significantly over the last decades. We demonstrated that ambient temperature was linked to the development of body size and identified a sensitive time period in the prenatal growth phase, in which body size was most susceptible to the impact of temperature. We established that warmer summers resulted in larger bats, but that these large bats had higher mortality risks throughout their lives. Manuscript 2 then revealed the influence of body size on the pace of life in Bechstein’s bats and demonstrated high plasticity in intraspecific life history strategies. Large females were characterized by a faster pace of life and shorter lifespans, but surprisingly, lifetime reproductive success remained remarkably stable across individuals with different body sizes. The acceleration of their pace of life means that larger females compensated for their reduced longevity by an earlier reproduction and higher fecundity to reach similar overall fitness. Ultimately, differences in body size resulted in changes in population growth rate via the impact of size on generation times. Results of Manuscript 3 were then able to clarify the extent to which changes in body size were founded on either phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation. We demonstrated a particularly low heritability in hot summers, indicating that variance in body size was mostly driven by phenotypic plasticity, with few genetic constraints. During cold summers, behavioural adaptations by reproducing bats seem to be able to mitigate negative effects of cold temperatures. These behaviours, such as social aggregation or preference for warm roosts, are, however, essentially irrelevant in hot environments. In addition, a low evolvability of forearm length points to a low capacity to respond to selection pressures associated with the trait.
We can conclude that body size in M. bechsteinii has increased over the last two decades as a response to global warming and is only slightly constrained by its genetic underpinnings. We can further demonstrate a direct link between body size and the pace of life histories in the Bechstein’s bat populations and how changes in body size impact demographic rates via this linkage. In the context of climate change and hotter summers, our findings consequently suggest that body size will likely increase further if warm summers continue to become more frequent. Whether this plastic response of body size proves to be adaptive in the long term, however, remains to be seen. While, up to this point, switching to a faster life history has been successful in compensating fitness losses, this strategy requires sufficient habitat quality and is likely risky in times when extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, as predicted by most climate change scenarios.
Abstract
Climate change may force organisms to adapt genetically or plastically to new environmental conditions. Invasive species show remarkable potential for rapid adaptation. The ovoviviparous New Zealand mud snail (NZMS), Potamopyrgus antipodarum, has successfully established across Europe with two clonally reproducing mitochondrial lineages since its arrival in the first half of the 19th century. Its remarkable variation in shell morphology was shown to be fitness relevant. We investigated the effects of temperature on shell morphology across 11 populations from Germany and the Iberian Peninsula in a common garden across three temperatures. We analyzed size and shape using geometric morphometrics. For both, we compared reaction norms and estimated heritabilities. For size, the interaction of temperature and haplotype explained about 50% of the total variance. We also observed more genotype by environment interactions indicating a higher degree of population differentiation than in shape. Across the three temperatures, size followed the expectations of the temperature‐size rule, with individuals growing larger in cold environments. Changes in shape may have compensated for changes in size affecting space for brooding embryos. Heritability estimates were relatively high. As indicated by the very low coefficients of variation for clonal repeatability (CVA), they can probably not be compared in absolute terms. However, they showed some sensitivity to temperature, in haplotype t more so than in z, which was only found in Portugal. The low CVA values indicate that genetic variation among European populations is still restricted with a low potential to react to selection. A considerable fraction of the genetic variation was due to differences between the clonal lineages. The NZMS has apparently not been long enough in Europe to accumulate significant genetic variation relevant for morphological adaptation. As temperature is obviously not the sole factor influencing shell morphology, their interaction will probably not be a factor limiting population persistence under a warming climate in Europe.
Coastal sand dunes near the Baltic Sea are a dynamic environment marking the boundary between land and sea and oftentimes covered by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests. Complex climate-environmental interactions characterize these ecosystems and largely determine the productivity and state of these coastal forests. In the face of future climate change, understanding interactions between coastal tree growth and climate variability is important to promote sustainable coastal forests. In this study, we assessed the effect of microsite conditions on tree growth and the temporal and spatial variability of the relationship between climate and Scots pine growth at nine coastal sand dune sites located around the south Baltic Sea. At each site, we studied the growth of Scots pine growing at microsites located at the ridge and bottom of a dune and built a network of 18 ring-width and 18 latewood blue intensity chronologies. Across this network, we found that microsite has a minor influence on ring-width variability, basal area increment, latewood blue intensity, and climate sensitivity. However, at the local scale, microsite effects turned out to be important for growth and climate sensitivity at some sites. Correlation analysis indicated that the strength and direction of climate-growth responses for the ring-width and blue intensity chronologies were similar for climate variables over the 1903–2016 period. A strong and positive relationship between ring-width and latewood blue intensity chronologies with winter-spring temperature was detected at local and regional scales. We identified a relatively strong, positive influence of winter-spring/summer moisture availability on both tree-ring proxies. When climate-growth responses between two intervals (1903–1959, 1960–2016) were compared, the strength of growth responses to temperature and moisture availability for both proxies varied. More specifically, for the ring-width network, we identified decreasing temperature-growth responses, which is in contrast to the latewood blue intensity network, where we documented decreasing and increasing temperature-growth relationships in the north and south respectively. We conclude that coastal Scots pine forests are primarily limited by winter-spring temperature and winter-spring/summer drought despite differing microsite conditions. We detected some spatial and temporal variability in climate-growth relationships that warrant further investigation.
Many of the world’s most biodiverse regions are found in the poorest and second most populous continent of Africa; a continent facing exceptional challenges. Africa is projected to quadruple its population by 2100 and experience increasingly severe climate change and environmental conflict—all of which will ravage biodiversity. Here we assess conservation threats facing Africa and consider how these threats will be affected by human population growth, economic expansion, and climate change. We then evaluate the current capacity and infrastructure available to conserve the continent’s biodiversity. We consider four key questions essential for the future of African conservation: (1) how to build societal support for conservation efforts within Africa; (2) how to build Africa’s education, research, and management capacity; (3) how to finance conservation efforts; and (4) is conservation through development the appropriate approach for Africa? While the challenges are great, ways forward are clear, and we present ideas on how progress can be made. Given Africa’s current modest capacity to address its biodiversity crisis, additional international funding is required, but estimates of the cost of conserving Africa’s biodiversity are within reach. The will to act must build on the sympathy for conservation that is evident in Africa, but this will require building the education capacity within the continent. Considering Africa’s rapidly growing population and the associated huge economic needs, options other than conservation through development need to be more effectively explored. Despite the gravity of the situation, we believe that concerted effort in the coming decades can successfully curb the loss of biodiversity in Africa.
To reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C, individuals and households play a key role. Behavior change interventions to promote pro-environmental behavior in individuals are needed to reduce emissions globally. This systematic literature review aims to assess the a) evidence-based effectiveness of such interventions and b) the content of very successful interventions without limiting the results to specific emitting sectors or countries. Based on the “PICOS” mnemonic and PRISMA statement, a search strategy was developed, and eligibility criteria were defined. Three databases (Embase, PsycInfo, and Web of Science) were searched to retrieve and review potential literature. As a result, 54 publications from 2010 to 2021 were included in the analysis. The results show that most interventions only have small positive effects or none at all. A total of 15 very successful interventions focused on the sectors of mobility, energy, and waste and incorporated improved (infra-) structures, education, feedback, enablement or made the sustainable option the default. Six evidence-based recommendations for content, timing, and setting are deducted and given for interventions on enhancing pro-environmental behavior (PEB). In summary, although the various interventions and intervention types to promote PEB differ in their effectiveness, very successful interventions have common elements. Future research should focus on high-/low-impact and high-/low-cost behavior to develop interventions that aim at high-impact but low-cost behavior changes, or avoid low-impact but high-cost behavior.
Changing climate can strongly affect tree growth and forest productivity. The dendrochronological approach to assessing the impact of climate change on tree growth is possible through climate–growth correlation analysis. This study uses an individual tree-based approach to model Pinus wallichiana (P. wallichiana) radial growth response to climate across the physiographic gradients in the lower distributional range of Nepal. This study sampled six sites across the Makwanpur district of central Nepal that varied in elevation and aspect, obtaining 180 tree-ring series. Climate data series were obtained from Climate Research Unit (CRU 4.0). The pair correlation approach was used to assess P. wallichiana growth response to climate and site-level physiographic variables such as site-level environmental stress. The study also determined long-term growth trends across the elevation and aspect gradients. Trees at sites with higher elevation and northeast aspect (NEA) were more responsive to winter and spring precipitation, whereas trees with lower elevation and northwest aspect (NWA) were more responsive to winter and spring precipitation. Basal area increment (BAI) analysis showed the variation of growth at site-level environmental stress, suggesting that the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to changing climate will vary across the lower growth limit of P. wallichiana due to differences in local physiographic conditions.