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Whether species can cope with environmental change depends considerably on their life history. Bats have long lifespans and low reproductive rates which make them vulnerable to environmental changes. Global warming causes Bechstein’s bats (Myotis bechsteinii) to produce larger females that face a higher mortality risk. Here, we test whether these larger females are able to offset their elevated mortality risk by adopting a faster life history. We analysed an individual-based 25-year dataset from 331 RFID-tagged wild bats and combine genetic pedigrees with data on survival, reproduction and body size. We find that size-dependent fecundity and age at first reproduction drive the observed increase in mortality. Because larger females have an earlier onset of reproduction and shorter generation times, lifetime reproductive success remains remarkably stable across individuals with different body sizes. Our study demonstrates a rapid shift to a faster pace of life in a mammal with a slow life history.
Hibernation is a widespread adaptation in animals to seasonally changing environmental conditions. In the face of global anthropogenic change, information about plastic adjustments to environmental conditions and associated mortality costs are urgently needed to assess population persistence of hibernating species. Here, we used a five-year data set of 1047 RFID-tagged individuals from two bat species, Myotis nattereri and Myotis daubentonii that were automatically recorded each time they entered or left a hibernaculum. Because the two species differ in foraging strategy and activity pattern during winter, we expected species–specific responses in the timing of hibernation relative to environmental conditions, as well as different mortality costs of early departure from the hibernaculum in spring. Applying mixed-effects modelling, we disentangled population-level and individual-level plasticity in the timing of departure. To estimate mortality costs of early departure, we used both a capture mark recapture analysis and a novel approach that takes into account individual exposure times to mortality outside the hibernaculum. We found that the timing of departure varied between species as well as among and within individuals, and was plastically adjusted to large-scale weather conditions as measured by the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index. Individuals of M. nattereri, which can exploit milder temperatures for foraging during winter, tuned departure more closely to the NAO index than individuals of M. daubentonii, which do not hunt during winter. Both analytical approaches used to estimate mortality costs showed that early departing individuals were less likely to survive until the subsequent hibernation period than individuals that departed later. Overall, our study demonstrates that individuals of long-lived hibernating bat species have the potential to plastically adjust to changing climatic conditions, although the potential for adjustment differs between species.
Animals often respond to climate change with changes in morphology, e.g., shrinking body size with increasing temperatures, as expected by Bergmann’s rule. Because small body size can have fitness costs for individuals, this trend could threaten populations. Recent studies, however, show that morphological responses to climate change and the resulting fitness consequences cannot be generalized even among related species. In this long-term study, we investigate the interaction between ambient temperature, body size and survival probability in a large number of individually marked wild adult female Natterer’s bats (Myotis nattereri). We compare populations from two geographical regions in Germany with a different climate. In a sliding window analysis, we found larger body sizes in adult females that were raised in warmer summers only in the northern population, but not in the southern population that experienced an overall warmer climate. With a capture-mark-recapture approach, we showed that larger individuals had higher survival rates, demonstrating that weather conditions in early life could have long-lasting fitness effects. The different responses in body size to warmer temperatures in the two regions highlight that fitness-relevant morphological responses to climate change have to be viewed on a regional scale and may affect local populations differently.
How well populations can cope with global warming will often depend on the evolutionary potential and plasticity of their temperature-sensitive, fitness-relevant traits. In Bechstein's bats (Myotis bechsteinii), body size has increased over the last decades in response to warmer summers. If this trend continues it may threaten populations as larger females exhibit higher mortality. To assess the evolutionary potential of body size, we applied a Bayesian ‘animal model’ to estimate additive genetic variance, heritability and evolvability of body size, based on a 25-year pedigree of 332 wild females. Both heritability and additive genetic variance were reduced in hot summers compared to average and cold summers, while evolvability of body size was generally low. This suggests that the observed increase in body size was mostly driven by phenotypic plasticity. Thus, if warm summers continue to become more frequent, body size likely increases further and the resulting fitness loss could threaten populations.