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(1) Background: Predicting chronic low back pain (LBP) is of clinical and economic interest as LBP leads to disabilities and health service utilization. This study aims to build a competitive and interpretable prediction model; (2) Methods: We used clinical and claims data of 3837 participants of a population-based cohort study to predict future LBP consultations (ICD-10: M40.XX-M54.XX). Best subset selection (BSS) was applied in repeated random samples of training data (75% of data); scoring rules were used to identify the best subset of predictors. The rediction accuracy of BSS was compared to randomforest and support vector machines (SVM) in the validation data (25% of data); (3) Results: The best subset comprised 16 out of 32 predictors. Previous occurrence of LBP increased the odds for future LBP consultations (odds ratio (OR) 6.91 [5.05; 9.45]), while concomitant diseases reduced the odds (1 vs. 0, OR: 0.74 [0.57; 0.98], >1 vs. 0: 0.37 [0.21; 0.67]). The area-under-curve (AUC) of BSS was acceptable (0.78 [0.74; 0.82]) and comparable with SVM (0.78 [0.74; 0.82]) and randomforest (0.79 [0.75; 0.83]); (4) Conclusions: Regarding prediction accuracy, BSS has been considered competitive with established machine-learning approaches. Nonetheless, considerable misclassification is inherent and further refinements are required to improve predictions.
Effectiveness of Varenicline as an Aid to Smoking Cessation in Primary Care: An Observational Study
(2012)
Aims: Although varenicline is commonly prescribed in primary care, information on smoking-related comorbidities and the effectiveness of varenicline in this context in Germany is scarce. This study assessed the efficacy and safety of varenicline in a large sample of patients seeking smoking cessation treatment through their general practitioners. The frequency of comorbidities was also evaluated. Methods: This was a 12-week, prospective, observational, non-comparative phase IV trial conducted in Germany. Abstinence rates at week 12 were evaluated by verbal reporting using the nicotine use inventory. Results: Overall, 1,391 subjects were enrolled; 1,177 received study medication and were evaluated for effectiveness and safety. At the end of the study, 71.1% (95% confidence interval 68.5–73.7) of subjects were abstinent. There were a total of 205 all-causality adverse events; 2.2% were classified as serious or severe. There were no fatal adverse events. At inclusion, 66.7% of participants had at least 1 concurrent comorbidity, with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (35.5%), hypertension (29.6%) and depression (10.4%) being the most commonly reported. Conclusion: These real-world data indicate that varenicline is an effective and well-tolerated smoking cessation treatment when used in the primary care setting including patients with smoking-related comorbidities.