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How well populations can cope with global warming will often depend on the evolutionary potential and plasticity of their temperature-sensitive, fitness-relevant traits. In Bechstein's bats (Myotis bechsteinii), body size has increased over the last decades in response to warmer summers. If this trend continues it may threaten populations as larger females exhibit higher mortality. To assess the evolutionary potential of body size, we applied a Bayesian ‘animal model’ to estimate additive genetic variance, heritability and evolvability of body size, based on a 25-year pedigree of 332 wild females. Both heritability and additive genetic variance were reduced in hot summers compared to average and cold summers, while evolvability of body size was generally low. This suggests that the observed increase in body size was mostly driven by phenotypic plasticity. Thus, if warm summers continue to become more frequent, body size likely increases further and the resulting fitness loss could threaten populations.
How organisms that are part of the same trophic network respond to environmental variability over small spatial scales has been studied in a multitude of systems. Prevailing theory suggests a large role for plasticity in key traits among interacting species that allows matching of life cycles or life‐history traits across environmental gradients, for instance insects tracking host‐plant phenology across variable environments (Posledovich et al. 2018). A key aspect that remains understudied is the extent of intrapopulation variability in plasticity and whether stressful conditions canalize plasticity to an optimal level, or alternatively if variation in plasticity indeed could increase fitness in itself via alternative strategies. In a From the Cover article in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Kahilainen et al. (2022) investigate this issue in a classical insect study system, the metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitea cinxia) in the Åland archipelago of Finland. The authors first establish how a key host plant responds to water limitation, then quantify among‐family variation in larval growth and development across control and water‐limited host plants. Finally, they use RNA sequencing to gain mechanistic insights into some of these among‐family differences in larval performance in response to host‐plant variation, finding results suggesting the existence of heritable, intrapopulation variability in ecologically relevant plasticity. This final step represents a critically important and often overlooked component of efforts to predict sensitivity of biological systems to changing environmental conditions, since it provides a key metric of adaptive resilience present in the system.
Abstract
Climate change may force organisms to adapt genetically or plastically to new environmental conditions. Invasive species show remarkable potential for rapid adaptation. The ovoviviparous New Zealand mud snail (NZMS), Potamopyrgus antipodarum, has successfully established across Europe with two clonally reproducing mitochondrial lineages since its arrival in the first half of the 19th century. Its remarkable variation in shell morphology was shown to be fitness relevant. We investigated the effects of temperature on shell morphology across 11 populations from Germany and the Iberian Peninsula in a common garden across three temperatures. We analyzed size and shape using geometric morphometrics. For both, we compared reaction norms and estimated heritabilities. For size, the interaction of temperature and haplotype explained about 50% of the total variance. We also observed more genotype by environment interactions indicating a higher degree of population differentiation than in shape. Across the three temperatures, size followed the expectations of the temperature‐size rule, with individuals growing larger in cold environments. Changes in shape may have compensated for changes in size affecting space for brooding embryos. Heritability estimates were relatively high. As indicated by the very low coefficients of variation for clonal repeatability (CVA), they can probably not be compared in absolute terms. However, they showed some sensitivity to temperature, in haplotype t more so than in z, which was only found in Portugal. The low CVA values indicate that genetic variation among European populations is still restricted with a low potential to react to selection. A considerable fraction of the genetic variation was due to differences between the clonal lineages. The NZMS has apparently not been long enough in Europe to accumulate significant genetic variation relevant for morphological adaptation. As temperature is obviously not the sole factor influencing shell morphology, their interaction will probably not be a factor limiting population persistence under a warming climate in Europe.
1. Anthropogenic climate change is a substantial threat to global biodiversity. It may affect insect herbivores directly and indirectly. Indirect effects are, among others, mediated by climate‐change induced variation in host‐plant quality. Although being potentially important, little is known on the significance of such indirect effects and on interactions among environmental stressors in plant–herbivore interactions.
2. To simulate the potential impact of climate change, we investigated effects of host‐plant temperature and soil moisture on herbivore performance in the tropical butterfly Bicyclus anynana under laboratory conditions.
3. Maize grown at high temperatures or under wet conditions reduced herbivore performance, indicated by decreased body mass, storage reserves, phenoloxidase activity, and increased development time. Temperature and soil moisture acted largely independent of one another. Detrimental effects of the high plant temperature were restricted to males, indicating a higher vulnerability of this sex to environmental stress.
4. In nature, B. anynana might be threatened by increasing temperatures during the wet season negatively affecting host‐plant quality. Our study shows that herbivore performance can be substantially affected by indirect effects mediated through changes in host‐plant quality, which deserves more attention in the current era of global climate change.