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Can established parties influence the electoral success of new parties? To answer this research question, the author examined the relationships of 168 new parties in 18 highly developed democracies with their established competitors based on their respective election programmes and election results. His analysis of the textual similarity of these election manifestos shows that established parties can influence their competitors' election results by selectively changing the emphasis of their policies. However, competition among the parties must also be taken into account. This study thus contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of party competition and the opportunities offered by computer-assisted textual analysis in the social sciences.
The thesis is about ideological change of political parties and the way parties gather information, learn by updating their beliefs and ultimately make "rational choices". Analyzing 1451 policy moves of 137 parties in 22 OECD-countries from 1950 to 2013 it is a story about rational learning, about emulating other parties abroad and chasing public opinion. Yet, the "internal life" of a party conditions the effects when activists have some influence over the formation of party policy. As volunteers facing a scarcity of time and resources, members of the party on the ground have a different information horizon, and may arrive at the opposite decision where to move than party elites which (can) rest their decision on a broader set of information resources. In some parties the party on the ground thus constitutes an "internal wall of resistance" to the strategy party elites would choose, if they were free from constraints.