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The onset of the growing season in temperate forests is relevant for forest ecology and biogeochemistry and is known to occur earlier with climate change. Variation in tree phenology among individual trees of the same stand and species, however, is not well understood. Yet, natural selection acts on this inter-individual variation, which consequently affects the adaptive potential to ongoing environmental changes. Budburst dates of 146 mature individuals of Fagus sylvatica, the dominant natural forest tree of central Europe, were recorded over 12 years in one forest stand of 1 ha in the Müritz National Park, Germany. The tree-specific location, topographical differences, as well as social status, were measured to explain the inter-individual variation in budburst. Furthermore, inter-individual differences in bud dormancy were quantified. Additional phenology and weather data across Germany from 405 sites over a 25-year period was used to put the insights from the single stand into perspective. Consistent phenological ranking over the years with respect to early and late flushing trees was observed within the single forest stand, with 23 trees consistently flushing 3–6 days earlier and 22 trees consistently flushing 3–10 days later than the median. Trees flushing consistently early varied most in their spring budburst dates and were less dormant than late-flushing trees already in mid-winter. The higher variation in earlier flushing trees was best explained by a slower warming rate during their budburst period in the observed stand as well as across Germany. Likewise, years with a lower warming rate during the budburst period were more variable in budburst dates. The rate of warming during spring time is crucial to accurately project future within-species variation and the resulting adaptive potential in spring phenology of dominant forest tree species.
Late to bed, late to rise—Warmer autumn temperatures delay spring phenology by delaying dormancy
(2021)
Abstract
Spring phenology of temperate forest trees has advanced substantially over the last decades due to climate warming, but this advancement is slowing down despite continuous temperature rise. The decline in spring advancement is often attributed to winter warming, which could reduce chilling and thus delay dormancy release. However, mechanistic evidence of a phenological response to warmer winter temperatures is missing. We aimed to understand the contrasting effects of warming on plants leaf phenology and to disentangle temperature effects during different seasons. With a series of monthly experimental warming by ca. 2.4°C from late summer until spring, we quantified phenological responses of forest tree to warming for each month separately, using seedlings of four common European tree species. To reveal the underlying mechanism, we tracked the development of dormancy depth under ambient conditions as well as directly after each experimental warming. In addition, we quantified the temperature response of leaf senescence. As expected, warmer spring temperatures led to earlier leaf‐out. The advancing effect of warming started already in January and increased towards the time of flushing, reaching 2.5 days/°C. Most interestingly, however, warming in October had the opposite effect and delayed spring phenology by 2.4 days/°C on average; despite six months between the warming and the flushing. The switch between the delaying and advancing effect occurred already in December. We conclude that not warmer winters but rather the shortening of winter, i.e., warming in autumn, is a major reason for the decline in spring phenology.