Open Access

Mats L. Wiese, Steffi Urban, Sabrina von Rheinbaben, Fabian Frost, Matthias Sendler, Frank Ulrich Weiss, Robin Bülow, Marie-Luise Kromrey, Quang Trung Tran, Markus M. Lerch, Birgit Schauer, Ali A. Aghdassi

• Background In acute pancreatitis, secondary infection of pancreatic necrosis is a complication that mostly necessitates interventional therapy. A reliable prediction of infected necrotizing pancreatitis would enable an early identification of patients at risk, which however, is not possible yet. Methods This study aims to identify parameters that are useful for the prediction of infected necrosis and to develop a prediction model for early detection. We conducted a retrospective analysis from the hospital information and reimbursement data system and screened 705 patients hospitalized with diagnosis of acute pancreatitis who underwent contrast-enhanced computed tomography and additional diagnostic puncture or drainage of necrotic collections. Both clinical and laboratory parameters were analyzed for an association with a microbiologically confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis. A prediction model was developed using a logistic regression analysis with stepwise inclusion of significant variables. The model quality was tested by receiver operating characteristics analysis and compared to single parameters and APACHE II score. Results We identified a total of 89 patients with necrotizing pancreatitis, diagnosed by computed tomography, who additionally received biopsy or drainage. Out of these, 59 individuals had an infected necrosis. Eleven parameters showed a significant association with an infection including C-reactive protein, albumin, creatinine, and alcoholic etiology, which were independent variables in a predictive model. This model showed an area under the curve of 0.819, a sensitivity of 0.692 (95%-CI [0.547–0.809]), and a specificity of 0.840 (95%-CI [0.631–0.947]), outperforming single laboratory markers and APACHE II score. Even in cases of missing values predictability was reliable. Conclusion A model consisting of a few single blood parameters and etiology of pancreatitis might help for differentiation between infected and non-infected pancreatic necrosis and assist medical therapy in acute necrotizing pancreatitis.