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This thesis aims at improving the current representation of adaptation in economic frameworks of climate change by a) accounting for the time-dependent evolution of the adaptive capacities of countries and b) quantifying unwelcome feedbacks of the adaptation process. In this context, it is proposed that economic assessments of climate change incorporate adaptation as a cyclic and phase-dependent process while devising their cost methodologies. A phase-dependent process acknowledges the existence of adaptation barriers while a cyclic process accounts for potential unwanted feedbacks of adaptation. By analyzing economic assessments against this framework, it is shown that dependencies between phases of adaptation and phases altogether are often disregarded. Furthermore, potential negative consequences associated with adaptation are rarely considered and adaptation is generally assumed to be unconstrained. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation is only acceptable in the context of high adaptive capacity. This concept was further investigated through a review of vulnerability assessments regarding their operation of the adaptive capacity component. It was found that adaptive capacity is mostly equated to proxies that reflect the knowledge, financial and livelihood capacities of the system under analysis. With this theoretical considerations in mind, a dynamic representation of adaptive capacity was elaborated at a country-level. The Human Development Index (HDI) was used as a proxy of the adaptive capacity of countries and its evolution in time extrapolated. The time required for countries to achieve developed world standards of human development was then estimated. The results indicate that between 2005 and 2020, half of the world population will live in countries with low adaptive capacity. This percentage is then progressively reduced to 15% in the year 2050, with marked regional differences. The time required for a country to achieve an appropriate level of development sets a clear constraint on when, and to what extent, the country can engage on climate change adaptation. This does not imply that adaptation will not take place before development occurs. Rather, it calls for adaptation options to be tailored in order to t the current and future adaptive capacities of countries. Obtaining higher levels of adaptive capacity is likely to be associated with negative consequences for the climatic system. The statistical relation between HDI and per-capita emissions of countries was established and future projections made. Between 2010 and 2050 approx. 300 Gt of CO2 are estimated to be associated with the increase of adaptive capacities of current developing countries. This value represents about 30% of the allowed CO2-budgets to restrict global temperatures to an increase of 2 degrees by 2100 compared to pre-industrial times - conditional to a 25% risk of failing to meet the target. For the case of sea-level rise, the modelling framework DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) was used in order to illustrate the drawbacks of a simplistic representation of adaptation. The results show that adaptation via the construction of protective infrastructure might be economically feasible for particular countries. For others, modeled results fail to provide a clear choice between adaptation or inaction. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation resulted in the valuation of costly protection options whose financial and knowledge requirements can be at odds with the capacities of some coastal countries - namely developing countries. Further, infrastructural protection as adaptive measure to prevent coastal damages can have the counter-productive effect of raising the amount and value of assets at risk. This is a direct result of DIVA disregarding the potential unwelcome feedbacks of adaptation itself. In conclusion, the full potential of economic assessments of climate adaptation is likely to remain unlocked as long as adaptation continues to be misrepresented. The methodologies discussed in this work provide a way forward to alleviate this deficiency in forthcoming assessments. For the case of sea-level rise, the modeling framework DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) was used in order to illustrate the drawbacks of a simplistic representation of adaptation. The results show that adaptation via the construction of protective infrastructure might be economically feasible for particular countries. For others, modeled results fail to provide a clear choice between adaptation or inaction. The assumption of unconstrained adaptation resulted in the valuation of costly protection options whose financial and knowledge requirements can be at odds with the capacities of some coastal countries - namely developing countries. Further, infrastructural protection as adaptive measure to prevent coastal damages can have the counter-productive effect of raising the amount and value of assets at risk. This is a direct result of DIVA disregarding the potential unwelcome feedbacks of adaptation itself. In conclusion, the full potential of economic assessments of climate adaptation is likely to remain unlocked as long as adaptation continues to be misrepresented. The methodologies discussed in this work provide a way forward to alleviate this deficiency in forthcoming assessments.
In terms of climate change and climate change mitigation, the quantitative knowledge of global carbon pools is important information. On the one hand, knowledge on the amount of carbon cycling among – and stored in – global pools (i.e. Atmosphere, Biosphere, Cryosphere, Hydrosphere, and Lithosphere) may improve the reliability of models predicting atmospheric CO2 concentrations in terms of fossil fuel combustion. On the other hand, the carbon sequestration potential of specific ecosystems allows for estimating their feasibility regarding carbon trade mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism or the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Program (REDD+). However, up to date, the majority of terrestrial carbon assessments have focused on forests and peatlands, leaving a data gap open regarding the remaining ecosystems. This data gap is likely to be explained by the relatively high carbon densities and/or productivities of forests and peatlands. Nevertheless, to get a precise as possible global picture, information on carbon pools and sequestration of other ecosystems is needed. Although desert ecosystems generally express low carbon densities, they may absolutely store a remarkable amount of carbon due to their large areal extent. In this context, Central Asian Deserts (in particular within the Turanian Deserts, i.e. Karakum, Kysylkum, Muyunkum) likely inhibit comparably high carbon pools as they express a sparse vegetation cover due to an exceptionally high annual precipitation if compared to the World’s deserts. In this dissertation, three important woody plant species – Populus euphratica and Haloxylon aphyllum and Haloxylon persicum – of Central Asian Deserts were investigated for their carbon pools and carbon sequestration potential. These species were chosen as they I) locally express high carbon densities, II) are dominant species, III) have a rather large spatial distribution, and IV) have experienced a strong degradation throughout the 20th century. Thus, they likely show a remarkable potential for carbon re-sequestration through restoration and thus for an application of carbon trade mechanisms (CHAPTER I). P. euphratica was investigated in the nature reserve Kabakly at the Amu Darya, Turkmenistan and in Iminqak at the Tarim He, Xinjiang, China. The assessment of Haloxylon species was restricted to the Turanian deserts west of the Tain Shan. To achieve a first scientific basis for large scale estimates, different methodologies, ranging from allometric formulas, over dendrochronology to remote sensing were combined (CHAPTERS II-V). In CHAPTER II allometric formulas were successfully developed for Haloxylon aphyllum and Haloxylon persicum and applied to six study sites distributed over the Turanian Deserts to represent the allometric variability of Haloxylon species in Central Asia. CHAPTER III derives another allometric formula (only based on canopy area) for H. aphyllum and combines it with a remote sensing analysis from the nature reserve Repetek. Thereby, a first large scale estimate covering the Northeastern Karakum Desert of carbon pools related to mono specific H. aphyllum stands is achieved. CHAPTER IV describes the wood structure of Populus euphratica forests in the nature reserve Kabakly (Turkmenistan) and in Iminqak (Xinjiang, China). In CHAPTER V a dendrochronological approach derives models for predicting the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and the age of P. euphratica in the nature reserve Kabakly. Thereby, a first feasibility assessment regarding remote sensing analyses and the upscaling of the obtained NPP results is carried out. First estimates based on these local studies (CHAPTER VI), reveal carbon densities ranging from 0.1 – 26.3 t C ha 1 for the three investigated species. Highest maximum and median carbon densities were found for P. euphratica, but Haloxylon aphyllum expressed remarkable maximum carbon densities (13.1 t C ha-1), too. The total carbon pools were estimated at 6480 kt C for P. euphratica, 520 kt C for H. aphyllum stands and 6900 kt C for Haloxylon persicum shrubland. Accounting for the extent of degraded areas, the total re-sequestration potentials of the respective species were estimated at 4320 kt C, 1620 kt C and 21900 kt C, this highlighting the remarkable absolute re-sequestration potential of H. persicum shrubland despite its low average carbon densities. In the end, the main results were put into a broader context (CHAPTER VI), discussing the general feasibility of reforestations both in ecological terms as well as in terms of carbon trade mechanisms. A short example highlights the strong connection between the feasibility of reforestations and the global carbon market. Finally, open research questions are brought forth revealing the yet large research potential of Central Asian Desert ecosystems in general and in terms of carbon sequestration.
Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy and reliability of Frankfort horizontal plane identification using displays of multi-planar reconstructed MRI images, and propose it as a sufficiently stable and standardized reference plane for craniofacial structures Materials and Methods: MRI images of 43 adolescent randomly selected subjects were obtained from the longitudinal population based cohort study SHIP-2 using a T1-weighted 3D sequence. Five examiners independently identified the three landmarks that form FH plane. Intra-examiner reproducibility and inter-examiner reliability, correlation coefficients (ICC), coefficient of variability and Bland-Altman plots were obtained for all landmarks coordinates to assess reproducibility. Intra-examiner reproducibility and inter-examiner reliability in terms of location and plane angulation were also assessed. Results: Intra- and inter-examiner reliabilities for X, Y and Z coordinates of all three landmarks were excellent with ICC values ranging from 0.914 to 0.998. Differences among examiners were more in X and Z than in Y dimensions. The Bland–Altman analysis demonstrated excellent intra- as well as inter-examiner agreement between examiners in all coordinates for all landmarks. Intra-examiner reproducibility and inter-examiner reliability of the three landmarks in terms of distance showed mean differences between 1.3 to 2.9 mm, Mean differences in plane angulation were between 1.0° to 1.5° among examiners. Conclusion: This study revealed excellent intra-examiner and inter-examiner reproducibility of Frankfort Horizontal plane through 3D landmark identification in MRI. Sufficiently stable landmark-based reference plane could be used for different treatments and studies.
This study aims to analyze psychometric properties and validity of the Compulsive Internet Use Scale (CIUS) and the Internet Addiction Test (IAT) and, second, to determine a threshold for the CIUS which matches the IAT cut-off for detecting problematic Internet use. A total of 292 subjects with problematic or pathological gambling (237 men, 55 women) aged 14-63 years and with private Internet use for at least 1 h per working or weekend day were recruited via different recruitment channels. Results include that both scales were internally consistent (Cronbach's α = 0.9) and had satisfactory convergent validity (r = 0.75; 95% CI 0.70-0.80). The correlation with duration of private Internet use per week was significantly higher for the CIUS (r = 0.54) compared to the IAT (r = 0.40). Among all participants, 25.3% were classified as problematic Internet users based on the IAT with a cut-off ≥40. The highest proportion of congruent classified cases results from a CIUS cut-off ≥18 (sensitivity 79.7%, specificity 79.4%). However, a higher cut-off (≥21) seems to be more appropriate for prevalence estimation of problematic Internet use.
Background: Fetal growth failure has been associated with an increased risk of hypertension, cardiovascular disease and diabetes in adulthood. Exploring the mechanisms underlying this association should improve our understanding of these common adult diseases. Patients and Methods: We investigated 225 SNPs in 10 genes involved in growth and glucose metabolism (GH1, GHR, IGF1, IGF1R, STAT5A, STAT5B, MAPK1, MAPK3, PPARγ and INS) in 1,437 children from the multinational NESTEGG consortium: 345 patients born small for gestational age who remained short (SGA-S), 288 who showed catch-up growth (SGA-Cu), 410 idiopathic short stature (ISS) and 394 controls. We related genotype to pre- and/or postnatal growth parameters, response to growth hormone (if applicable) and blood pressure. Results: We found several clinical associations for GH1, GHR, IGF1, IGF1R, PPARγ and MAPK1. One SNP remained significant after Bonferroni's correction: IGF1R SNP rs4966035's minor allele A was significantly more prevalent among SGA and associated with smaller birth length (p = 0.000378) and birth weight (weaker association), independent of gestational age. Conclusion:IGF1R SNP rs4966035 is significantly associated with birth length, independent of gestational age. This and other associations suggest that polymorphisms in these genes might partly explain the phenotype of short children born SGA and children with ISS.
Aim: To evaluate the association of Insulin-like Growth Factor (IGF) I related variables with periodontitis in the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). Material and Methods: From the cross-sectional SHIP, 2293 subjects with clinical attachment loss (CAL) data and 2398 subjects with tooth count data aged 20-59 years were analysed. Serum IGF-I and IGF binding protein (BP)-3 levels were determined by chemiluminescence immunoassays. Linear and logistic regressions with fractional polynomials were used to study associations between IGF-related variables and mean CAL or high tooth loss. For non-linear relations between IGFBP-3 and mean CAL, graphical presentations of fractional polynomials were used to deduce knots for linear splines. Results: In fully adjusted models, for serum IGFBP-3 values ≤1200 ng/mL, mean CAL increased significantly for decreasing serum IGFBP-3 levels (B=-0.027 (95% CI, -0.049; -0.005), p=0.02). The odds for high tooth loss decreased significantly for high serum IGFBP-3 values (OR=0.97 (0.95; 0.99), p=0.02). Serum IGF-I levels and the IGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratio were not related to mean CAL or tooth loss after full adjustment. Conclusions: Low serum IGFBP-3 levels might be associated with higher levels of periodontal disease. Neither serum IGF-I nor IGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratios were associated with periodontitis.
Background/Aims: Only a small percentage of pathological gamblers utilizes professional treatment for gambling problems. Little is known about which social and gambling-related factors are associated with treatment utilization. The aim of this study was to look for factors associated with treatment utilization for pathological gambling. Methods: The study followed a sampling design with 3 different recruitment channels, namely (1) a general population-based telephone sample, (2) a gambling location sample and (3) a project telephone hotline. Pathological gambling was diagnosed in a telephone interview. Participants with pathological gambling (n = 395) received an in-depth clinical interview concerning treatment utilization, comorbid psychiatric disorders and social characteristics. Results: Variables associated with treatment were higher age [odds ratio (OR) 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.08], an increased number of DSM-IV criteria for pathological gambling (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.06-1.70), more adverse consequences from gambling (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.16) and more social pressure from significant others (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07-1.27). Affective disorders were associated with treatment utilization in the univariate analysis (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.19-2.73), but multivariate analysis showed that comorbid psychiatric disorders were not independently associated. Conclusion: These results indicate that individuals with more severe gambling problems utilize treatment at an older age when more adverse consequences have occurred. Further research should focus on proactive early interventions.
Die dentale Plaque beeinflusst entscheidend die Ätiologie von Karies, Parodontitis und Periimplantitis. Die Plaque stellt nach wie vor eine therapeutische Herausforderung dar, weil ihre Eliminierung durch mechanische Reinigung aufgrund der schweren Zugänglichkeit nur unvollständig gelingt. Antiseptische Mundspülungen können zwar über die Senkung der Bakterienzahl das Plaquewachstum hemmen, allerdings ohne dabei die Plaque selbst zu eliminieren. Darüber hinaus sind nur wenige antiseptische Wirkstoffe aufgrund möglicher Nebenwirkung für die Daueranwendung geeignet. Als mögliche Option zur Inaktivierung der Mikroorganismen in der Plaque bei gleichzeitiger Plaqueelimination wurde die Anwendung von Argonplasma, erzeugt mit dem kinpen09, an S. sanguinis Biofilmen, kultiviert im Europäischen Biofilmreaktor (EUREBI) bzw. in der 24-Well-Platte, untersucht. In beiden Modellen konnte auf Titanplättchen innerhalb von 72 h ein homogener, stabiler, gut analysierbarer Biofilm (>6,9 log10 KbE/ml) erzeugt werden. Trotz der signifikant stärkeren Biofilmbildung im EUREBI war die erzielte Differenz von 0,4 log10 KbE/ml ohne praktische Relevanz, so dass beide Prüfmodelle gleichermaßen zur Erprobung der Wirksamkeit von Plasmaquellen geeignet sind. Verglichen mit der Kontrolle war in beiden Biofilmmodellen nach der längsten gewählten Einwirkungszeit von 180 s eine signifikante Reduktion des Biofilms um 0,6 log10 KbE/ml bzw. 0,5 log10 KbE/ml erreichbar. Im Vergleich zur Wirksamkeit des kinpen09 in anderen Studien bildet S. sanguinis offensichtlich einen schwierig eliminierbaren Biofilm aus, wobei die Reifungszeit des Biofilms sowie andere Plasmazusammensetzungen und Behandlungseinstellungen die vergleichsweise geringe Effektivität beeinflusst haben dürften. Um die Wirksamkeit gegen S. sanguinis Biofilme zu verbessern, sind weitere Untersuchungen mit reduziertem Abstand zwischen Plasmaquelle und Biofilm, veränderter Zusammensetzung des Plasmas sowie mit anderen Plasmaquellen erforderlich. Schlüsselwörter: S. sanguinis Biofilm, Biofilmreaktor, Mikrotiterplattenbiofilmmodell, kaltes Atmosphärendruckplasma, Argonplasma, kinpen09
Hintergrund: Psychiatrische Institutsambulanzen (PIA) sind in Deutschland inzwischen weit verbreitet, deren Nutzen für gerontopsychiatrische Patienten jedoch wenig untersucht. Methoden: In einem Prä-Post-Studiendesign werden Effekte durch die PIA-Behandlung hinsichtlich Hospitalisierung, Polypharmazie und Effizienz analysiert. Datengrundlage sind retrospektiv erhobene Routinedaten der Jahre 2003 bis 2006 von 114 im Jahr 2006 durch die PIA Stralsund behandelten Altenheimbewohnern. Ergebnisse: Für Patienten ohne stationäre Voraufenthalte während der dreijährigen Präphase vor Behandlung durch die PIA und Heimbewohner mit geringem stationärem Behandlungsbedarf finden sich keine signifikanten Ergebnisse. Bei Patienten mit hohem Behandlungsbedarf (heavy-user) ist hinsichtlich der Hospitalisierungsdauer- und Häufigkeit eine Reduktion um durchschnittlich 50 Tage (83%) bzw. 2 Aufenthalte (69%) festzustellen. Auch ist für diese Patientengruppe eine Effizienzsteigerung in Höhe von mehr als 10.000€ pro Patient und Jahr nachweisbar. Es wird für keine der drei Patientengruppen eine Abschwächung des zuvor beobachteten Trends zunehmender Verschreibung somatischer und psychiatrischer Arzneimittel gefunden. Diskussion und Schlussfolgerung: Heavy user profitieren von der aufsuchenden und multiprofessionellen Behandlung der PIA, für weitere Heimbewohner deutet sich die Behebung einer bisherigen Unterversorgung an. Insbesondere für jüngere Patienten und langjährige Heimbewohner scheint eine Reduktion der Polypharmazie möglich. Für beide Aspekte sind weiterführende Untersuchungen notwendig.
Die häufigste Erblindungsursache weltweit ist die Katarakt. Etwa 85% der betroffenen Menschen leben in den Ländern der Dritten Welt. Durch eine zunehmende Trübung der Augenlinse verlieren die Patienten ständig an Sehkraft bis sie vollständig erblinden. Die Möglichkeit zur Behandlung der Katarakt besteht in einer Operation, bei der die eigene trübe Linse entfernt und an deren Stelle eine Kunstlinse implantiert wird. In dieser Studie wurden zwei etablierte OP Verfahren, die Small Incision Cataract Surgery und die Phakoemulsifikation unter den Bedingungen eines ambulanten EyeCamps evaluiert. Die SICS stellt derzeit den besten Kompromiss der Kataraktchirurgie in der Dritten Welt dar, da sie ohne komplizierte technische Hilfsmittel auskommt, kostengünstig in der Durchführung ist und sehr gute postoperative Ergebnisse bietet. Die Phakoemulsifikation ist die verbreiteteste Methode in den Industrienationen. Sie bietet ebenfalls sehr gute postoperative Ergebnisse, ist aber auch technisch sehr anspruchsvoll und in den OP Kosten deutlich teurer als die anderen OP Techniken. Im Zeitraum von vier Tagen wurden 117 Patienten am Grauen Star operiert. Das Geschlechterverhältnis lag bei 57 Frauen (48,7%) zu 60 Männern (51,3%). Das Durchschnittsalter der Patienten betrug 69,84 Jahre. Es wurde an 72 rechten Augen (61,5%) und 45 linken Augen (38,5%) operiert. Mit SICS Technik wurden 65 Patienten (55,6%) behandelt. Eine Phakoemulsifikation erfolgte bei 52 Patienten (44,4%). Beide OP Verfahren waren bezüglich des postoperativen Sehvermögens gleich. Bei der Phakoemulsifikation betrug der gemittelte Durchschnittsvisus 0,37, bei der SICS 0,32. Statistisch bestand kein signifikanter Unterschied p=0,196. Im Bezug auf intra- und postoperative Komplikationen traten bei der Phakoemulsifikation vermehrt Zonulolysen (n=6:1) auf, was jedoch auch auf den höheren Anteil an Patienten mit Pseudoexfoliationssyndrom (n=5:1) zurückzuführen sein könnte. Weiterhin wurden mehr postoperative Keratopathien bei der Phakoemulsifikation beobachtet (n=14:5). Kapselrupturen traten in beiden Gruppen etwa gleich häufig auf (n=3:2). Insgesamt konnte gezeigt werden, dass durch die technische Weiterentwicklung in der Phakoemulsifikation ( Oertli Catarhex© Phakomaschine und die EasyPhaco© Tips) auch unter den Bedingungen der Dritten Welt gleichwertige Ergebnisse erzielt werden können wie mit der Small Incision Cataract Surgery.